区域客运交通系统动态节能机理与激励策略研究

The effect of decreasing operation energy consumption of a regional passenger transport system on its sustainable development is positively important and the existing studies on energy saving optimization methods from the systematically comprehensive perspective have not been fully adequate yet. As a result, this work focuses on the dynamic mechanism of energy saving in multi-level interaction viewpoints to explore the detailed functions of various energy saving strategies for effectively reducing the operation energy costs of regional passenger transport systems. In the first place, the interactive dynamic influences of energy cost factors are analyzed in quantificational manners with regard to personal travel behavior, transport enterprise operation, traffic and transportation industry development management and control in coordination, and multi-mode transport cooperation. In succession, the dynamic energy saving mechanism of a regional passenger transport system in operation is studied and the energy consumption optimization model system is correspondingly developed in consideration of the multi-level interactions of different energy cost factors. On the basis of the established model system, the specific application conditions and results of various energy saving incentive approaches, policies, and so on are analyzed in quantificational ways from a systematically multi-level and dynamically integrated perspective for typical regional passenger transport systems. At last, typical cases of operation energy saving are studied for regional passenger transport systems in a comprehensive viewpoint. Accordingly, the theoretical deviations of developed models, methods and so on get rational corrections. From an empirical perspective, it is able to reasonably provide convincing optimization decision-making supports for the efficiently sustainable operation and development of a regional passenger transport system.

鉴于降低系统运行能耗对于实现区域客运交通系统可持续发展的重要作用以及该领域内系统性综合节能优化方法等研究的不足，本项目将致力于旨在降低区域客运交通系统运行能耗水平的多层次动态优化节能机理和相应节能激励策略的研究。首先，本研究将从个人出行行为、运输企业运营、交通行业发展管控和各种交通运输方式协同运转四个层面，定量分析区域客运交通运输能耗影响因素动态传递作用；继而探究区域客运交通系统运转动态节能机理，并建立多层联动系统能耗优化模型体系；以此为基础，综合定量分析典型区域客运交通系统的不同节能激励方法、政策等在不同层面的具体适用条件和系统性动态联动实施作用效果；最后，进行区域客运交通系统节能运行典型案例综合实证研究，从而对所建立的各项关系、模型、方法等进行偏差修正，并从实证的角度为区域客运交通系统的高效可持续运行及发展提供有力的优化决策支持。

本项目组按照计划，分析区域客运交通运输能耗影响因素及其在不同层面间的定量动态作用传递规律，探究区域客运交通系统运转动态节能机理，建立多层联动系统能耗优化模型体系；以此为基础，综合定量分析典型区域客运交通系统的不同节能激励方法、政策等的适用条件和系统性动态联动实施作用效果；通过典型案例综合实证研究，对所建立的各项关系、模型、方法等进行偏差修正，从实证的角度提供优化决策支持。项目的研究工作达到了主要的预期目标。主要成果包括：1）开发新的多目标公共交通线网设计方法，提出可逆模拟退火算法，充分考虑出行者和客运企业的利益在线网布局构建过程中的博弈关系；2）从运输费服务频率优化、乘客换乘效率提升和乘客出行综合环境改善的效果传递的角度，建模说明客运交通网络运转成本受综合因素的影响过程；3）提出采用降低乘客换乘感知时间提高公共交通利用率的定量推理分析决策方法，并探究不同办法的具体实施效果；4）对轨道交通列车运行服务效率进行多因素影响测算，提出相应的运行成本优化改进方法建议；考虑轨道交通运输供需关系的特点，建立分析供需关系的系统动态模型和经营策略分析方法；5）运用双层约束、随即系数等建模方法，建立运输安全优化和评价模型及算法，并对不同的应急保障措施进行了实施效果的定量分析预测。