双控行动下流域初始水权与产业结构高级化适配研究

Facing up to allocated capacity constraints of double control action (the total amount and intensity of water resources)，and the deficiency of existing allocation methods of basin initial water rights, taking allocated water resources of basin as objects, the study researches the adaptive management schemes between basin initial water rights allocation and industrial structure advance based on the idea of the determine industry development model according to water resources. The specific content of adaptive allocation ideas as follows: the discrimination of adaptive allocation actuality, the adaptive allocation scheme design of basin initial water rights, the adaptive discrimination and evolutionary of the adaptive allocation scheme design. First, the allocation adaptive approaches of initial water rights will be researched by three key technologies coupled. We propose the two-dimensional discrimination model based on industrial water which is used to the discrimination of adaptive allocation actuality. The pre-allocation scheme will be get from two dimensions of region and industry. We construct the water quantity-quality- efficiency coupled model based on GSR theory for the regional initial water rights allocation which is beneficial to get regional initial pre-allocation scheme. We propose dynamic evolutionary model based on the adaptive allocation between industrial water rights and industrial structure which is beneficial to get industrial water rights pre-allocation scheme and industrial structure pre-adjustment scheme. We construct the adaptive discrimination and evolutionary model which is beneficial to get industrial water rights allocation scheme and industrial structure adjustment scheme. Then the empirical research will be carried out in Hubei region of Hanjiang Basin and policy recommendations will be put forward. Studied results indicate that can provide service even more effectively for strategy department of double control action and the determine industry development model according to water resources.

面向双控行动下的水资源硬约束，基于“以水定产”的协调绿色发展理念，针对现有初始水权配置方法存在的不适配问题，以流域可配置水量为研究对象，按照“适配性问题诊断---流域初始水权适配方案设计---方案适应性判别及进化调整”的适应性管理思路，提出流域初始水权与产业结构高级化适配方案。①方法研究。主要通过三个关键技术予以循环耦合实现：一是构建流域内区域产业用水二维诊断模型，诊断现状适配问题。二是分区域层和产业层设计适配预方案。基于GSR理论的区域层初始水权量质效耦合适配模型，获得区域层初始水权适配预方案；基于产业层初始水权与产业结构适配动态演化模型，获得产业层初始水权适配及产业结构优化预方案。三是构建适配方案的双层适应性判别及进化模型，获得流域初始水权适配及产业结构优化理论方案。②实证研究。针对湖北省汉江流域进行实证分析，并提出政策建议，为“双控行动"和“以水定产“等政策制定提供决策参考。

面向双控行动下的水资源硬约束，基于“以水定产”的协调绿色发展理念，针对现有初始水权配置方法存在的不适配问题，以流域可配置水量为研究对象，按照“适配性问题诊断---流域初始水权适配方案设计---方案适应性判别及进化调整”的适应性管理思路，提出流域初始水权与产业结构高级化适配方案。具体研究内容如下：（1）适配度及驱动因素测算研究。主要包括：开展双控行动下流域初始水权适应性配置机理分析、适配度及驱动因素测算研究，反映适配的动态性、交互性等时空变化特征，重点探究产业结构高级化效应驱动用水总量时空差异变化的具体渠道及内在机制，为产业经济-水生态效益的偏差测度及因素分解提供新的研究思路。（2）方法研究。主要通过三个关键技术予以循环耦合实现：一是构建流域内区域产业用水二维诊断模型，诊断现状适配问题。二是分区域层和产业层设计适配预方案。基于GSR理论的区域层初始水权量质效耦合适配模型，获得区域层初始水权适配预方案；基于产业层初始水权与产业结构适配动态演化模型，获得产业层初始水权适配及产业结构优化预方案。三是构建适配方案的双层适应性判别及进化模型，获得流域初始水权适配及产业结构优化理论方案。（3）实证研究。针对湖北省汉江流域进行实证分析，从适配的角度实现直接促进产业结构升级和间接减少水资源消耗量，有利于落实双控行动和“以水定产”政策。该研究符合双控行动下流域初始水权与产业结构高级化适配机理，有利于提高水资源要素与产业结构高级化的适配性，推进我国经济协调绿色发展。