长期农业生产自然风险对当代企业家精神的影响

There is widespread consensus that entrepreneurship is a central determinant to the long-term development of human society. In this project, we propose agricultural production natural risk theory to explore the entrepreneurship differences in the modern world. Since humans adopted agriculture, they have been facing agriculture natural risks for thousands of years, which may have long-run effects on their psychology, institutions and culture and eventually affect present entrepreneurship. Thus, it is reasonable to explain entrepreneurship differences from the perspective of agricultural production risk. However, the paramount role of agricultural production natural risk has not been highlighted and empirically investigated in present study. In this project, a multi-disciplinary approach will be adopted to establish the logic framework of “agricultural production natural risk theory”. After that, we will construct agricultural natural risk database using data from Chinese historical natural disaster database, weather database and agricultural plants database. With data from nationally representative microscopic surveys and macroscopic statistical databases, we will investigate the long-run effect of agricultural production natural risk on contemporary entrepreneurship empirically. Furthermore, the possible mechanisms such as psychological effect, population migration and early agricultural market growth will also be discussed. We are looking forward to making a contribution to the modern economics.

企业家精神是推动经济与社会发展的关键因素，本项目拟提出“农业生产自然风险理论”解释当代人群企业家精神的差异。人类自从采纳农业种植以来，在生产过程中不断面临自然风险，这些自然风险在千万年历史长河中塑造着人类的心理与行为，进而影响当代企业家精神。因而，从农业生产自然风险视角解释当代不同人群间企业家精神的差异，是一个具有重要解释潜力的理论，但是这一重要理论尚未被学界严谨地提出与验证。本项目将综合多学科知识与方法，构建“农业生产自然风险理论”逻辑框架；进而利用中国历史自然灾害数据库、气温数据库、农业种植数据库构建农业生产自然风险数据库，结合大型微观调查数据库和宏观统计数据库，用严谨的计量经济学方法，实证检验长期农业生产自然风险对当代企业家精神的影响，并进一步对心理影响、人口迁移、早期农产品市场发展三种可能的机制进行检验，最后进行理论提升，以期做出中国学者的原创性理论贡献。

产业发展是摆脱贫困和促进经济增长的重要途径，而企业家的创新创业精神是促进产业发展的关键因素。本项目通过长期的研究和观察，发现人类自从采纳农业种植以来，在生产过程中不断面临自然风险，这些自然风险在千万年历史长河中塑造着人类的心理与行为，进而影响当代企业家精神。因而，从农业生产自然风险视角解释当代不同人群间企业家精神的差异，是一个具有重要解释潜力的理论，但是这一重要理论尚未被学界严谨地提出与验证。本项目通过4年的研究，结合各类宏观和微观数据，探究了长期农业生产风险和自然灾害对人群的社会信任、区域文化以及人力资本的长期影响，进而探究了社会信任、区域文化与人力资本等因素对创新创业的影响和对区域产业发展的作用。围绕上述研究内容，课题组共发表了5篇SSCI论文；课题成员参加了3个国际会议，3个国内会议；培养了3位博士毕业生。项目取得了预期的成效，对相关理论产生了学术贡献，对政策实践也有一定的借鉴意义。