供水管网震后功能恢复过程动态模拟及提升方法研究

The post-earthquake serviceability of water distribution system (WDS) is decided not only by the structural seismic resistance of water supply pipelines, but also by the repair events during the process of post-earthquake restoration, which consistent of post-earthquake emergency disposal and damaged pipeline repairment. In this project, a novel promotion method is proposed to enhance the post-earthquake restoration efficiency of WDS through two measures: increasing the satisfy ratio of post-earthquake water requirement, and reduce the duration of restoration process. A dynamic simulation model is established by considering the changes of WDS topology and regulatory elements such as valves and tanks produced by post-earthquake repair events. The optimum start time and locations of repair events are evaluated by considering the water requirement difference between the normal operation function and post-earthquake relief function. Then, according to the rapid restoration requirements of WDS post-earthquake serviceability, the method for seismic strengthening scheme determination is proposed through critical pipeline structural strengthen and redundancy installation of tanks and isolation valves. Therefore, the enhancement of WDS post-earthquake serviceability restoration could be achieved by arranging the priority of post-earthquake repair events and strengthen WDS preparation before earthquake.

供水系统的震后供水保障能力不仅与震前管线结构的抗震能力及管网拓扑布局相关，还 受到震后紧急处置、管道修复等恢复活动的影响。本项目以提高管网震后功能恢复过程的用户满足率、减小恢复过程的持续时间两方面为切入点，研究管网震后功能恢复力提升方法。考虑震后管网功能恢复活动产生的管网拓扑布局和调节设施状态的动态变化，建立管网震后功能恢复过程动态变化分析模型；基于震后用户供水需求分布，建立管网震后恢复活动开始时间及空间位置的优化模型；根据供水管网震后功能快速恢复的需求，通过管线改造及调节设施（蓄水池、隔离阀）布置，提出管网震前改造提升方法。在上述研究的基础上，通过管网震后功能恢复活动优化和管网震前改造两方面措施，实现供水管网震后功能恢复能力的提升。

供水系统的震后供水保障能力不仅与震前管线结构的抗震能力及管网拓扑布局相关，还受到震后紧急处置、管道修复等恢复活动的影响。本项目以提高管网震后功能恢复过程的用户满足率、减小恢复过程的持续时间两方面为切入点，研究管网震后功能恢复力提升方法。.在供水系统震后恢复过程分析的方法与模型方面，以提高管网震后功能恢复过程的用户满足率、减小恢复过程的持续时间为目标，建立了地震破坏管网恢复次序优化模型；比较了优化恢复次序与基于震前功能重要度排序结果的差异，为震后管网功能的快速恢复提供支撑。在供水管网震后水力服务能力研究方面，根据管道地震破坏概率模型和管网压力驱动节点配水量模型，建立了基于Monte Carlo模拟的供水管网震后水力状态分析方法。在考虑管线地震失效相关性的管网功能研究方面，采用正交变换方法将相关随机变量转变为独立随机变量，采用随机模拟方法求解管网震后水力功能状态和连通可靠性；利用基于Nataf变换和正交变换的一次二阶矩法建立了相关失效管网系统地震可靠度问题的解析模型，给出了随机变量相关系数在管线可靠度-管网系统可靠度的传递关系。对于高可靠度网络的连通失效（小概率事件）概率求解问题，提出了网络连通可靠度计算的演化过程重要度抽样Monte Carlo模拟方法，此方法可以考虑节点和边单元失效的网络连通性问题。