澜沧江高海拔地区水能开发对局地气候影响研究

Hydropower development is one of the key pathways for clean energy and is one of the intensive human exploitations of land and water resources. Lancang River, featuring abundant water resources and suitable development conditions, is recognized as one of most important clean energy bases in China. However, due to the vulnerability of ecosystem in Lancang River basin, the impacts of hydropower development in the basin should be very well addressed, which now largely remains as an open question. In addition, considering the existence of glaciers at high latitudes in the basin, the synergies between glaciers and reservoirs may expose unexpected influences on the local and regional climates. As such, in this project, we will choose the upstream area of Lancang River basin as the study region to summarize its hydroclimatic characteristics, to investigate the key pathways of hydropower development to influencing the local and regional climates, to quantify the "water–electricity–environment" feedbacks, and to propose adapting strategies for future hydropower development given the forthcoming climate change. The expected outcomes and breakthroughs lie in the better understanding of mechanism for regional hydrometeorological processes, advances in the improvement of regional climate model with hydropower development effects, and progress in designing appropriate strategies for future national water and energy security, which are of great scientific significance and practical benefits.

水能开发是获得清洁能源的重要途径，也是典型的对水土资源进行开发利用的强人类活动。澜沧江流域径流资源丰富，水能开发条件优越，是我国重要的清洁能源基地，对国家能源安全具有重要意义。同时，澜沧江流域生态多样性丰富而脆弱，易受到气候变化和人类活动的影响。然而，澜沧江流域高海拔地区水能开发对局地气候的影响尚无定论，水库水体与高海拔冰雪带对气候的耦合效应也尚未明确。本项目以澜沧江上游高海拔区域作为典型研究区域，分析其历史水文气候特征，构建考虑水能开发影响的区域气候模式，通过模拟试验识别水能开发影响局地气候的关键路径，定量认识“供水－发电－环境”互馈关系；此外，还将针对未来气候场景，研判该流域自然环境变化及水能开发潜力情势，面向可持续发展提出建议对策。本项目预期将在区域气象水文过程调控机理上获得新认识、陆面－水文耦合模型开发上实现新突破、国家能源安全保障对策上取得新进展，具有重要的科学意义和实际价值。

水能开发是获得清洁能源的重要途径，也是典型的对水土资源进行开发利用的强人类活动。澜沧江流域径流资源丰富，水能开发条件优越，是我国重要的清洁能源基地，对国家能源安全具有重要意义。同时，澜沧江流域生态多样性丰富而脆弱，易受到气候变化和人类活动的影响。然而，澜沧江流域高海拔地区水能开发对局地气候的影响尚无定论，水库水体与高海拔冰雪带对气候的耦合效应也尚未明确。项目选择澜沧江流域典型电站及库区，来研究水能开发对区域气候的影响机理。研究主要分为特征、模型、机理三个层面：（1）分析了近三十年来澜沧江高海拔地区水文气候和冰雪带多年演变特征；（2）改进了原有的WRF-Lake湖模式，完成了包含水能开发影响的区域气候模式构建；（3）进行了水能开发对区域气候的影响特征及机理分析，包括库区水温分布的数值模拟与分析以及运用改进的WRF模式对区域气候进行模拟与分析。总体上来讲，流域水库建设会对水域上方的气象要素存在显著影响，表现为区域气温、降水和风速的变化，但是影响范围有限，影响范围则主要局限在距水面高差100m区域以内。根据库区气候数值模拟和文献调研所得结论，我们设计了流域代表库区气象观测方案，为进一步开展深入研究奠定了基础。