探析跨期决策中负折扣现象的心理机制

Intertemporal choice is vital to human survival and development. How to make an intertemporal choice is a compelling question facing scientists today. Mainstream theories of intertemporal choice hold that choices are based on a discounting and expectation-maximizing process. However, the building and revising of traditional models of intertemporal choice are mostly based on the researches in the gain domain rather than in the loss domain. Recent researches found that, although mainstream theories of intertemporal choice could describe the decision behaviors in the gain domain well, they are not absolutely compatible with the decision behaviors in the loss domain. It was even found that there is a “negative discounting” phenomenon that fundamentally deviates the assumption of mainstream theories of intertemporal choice. The mysteries underlying the “negative discounting” phenomenon will always prevent us from understanding the mechanism underlying intertemporal choice. Therefore, from the perspective of revising the representation space of decision, we creatively proposed a likely mechanism underlying the “negative discounting” phenomenon. We applied a series of research methods to systematically investigate the mechanism underlying the “negative discounting” phenomenon. It is our hope that these studies can help us to gradually understand the mechanism underlying intertemporal choice thoroughly and globally, thereby providing theoretical foundations for further uncovering the mechanism underlying the intertemporal choice on the loss domain.

跨期决策需要决策者在眼前的利益得失与未来的利益得失之间做出权衡与取舍，是人类赖以生存和发展的重大决策。主流跨期理论认为, 跨期决策是折扣求和最大化的过程。然而，传统跨期决策模型的建立和修订大多基于对获得金钱等正性领域的研究，缺少对损失金钱等负性领域的关注。近年来的研究发现，主流的折扣家族模型虽然可以描述获得领域的跨期决策行为，却不完全适用于描述损失领域的跨期决策行为，甚至在损失领域存在着一种从根本上悖离折扣家族模型的现象——负折扣现象。隐藏在负折扣现象背后的谜团不能得以破解，将一直阻碍我们理解损失领域的跨期决策机制。为此，我们从改造决策表征空间的角度，创造性地提出了负折扣现象可能的心理机制，并综合运用问卷调查、实验室情境实验、认知行为实验等多种研究手段，系统验证负折扣现象背后的心理机制，翼为更加完整地深入地理解跨期决策的决策机制、为进一步揭开损失领域跨期决策的心理机制奠定基础。

跨期决策需要决策者在眼前的利益得失与未来的利益得失之间做出权衡与取舍，是人类赖以生存和发展的重大决策。主流跨期理论认为, 跨期决策是折扣求和最大化的过程。然而，传统跨期决策模型的建立和修订大多基于对获得金钱等正性领域的研究，缺少对损失金钱等负性领域的关注。近年来的研究发现，主流的折扣家族模型虽然可以描述获得领域的跨期决策行为，却不完全适用于描述损失领域的跨期决策行为，甚至在损失领域存在着一种从根本上悖离折扣家族模型的现象——负折扣现象。隐藏在负折扣现象背后的谜团不能得以破解，将一直阻碍我们理解损失领域的跨期决策机制。为此，我们从改造决策表征空间的角度，创造性地提出了负折扣现象可能的心理机制—当人们面对将来的损失时，对等待的过程会产生预期负性情绪，预期负性情绪的产生使得将来损失的负效用大于现在损失的负效用，因此产生了负折扣现象。本项目综合运用问卷调查、实验室情境实验、认知行为实验等多种研究手段，系统验证了预期负性情绪对负折扣现象的影响机制。本项目为更加完整地深入地理解跨期决策的决策机制、为进一步揭开损失领域跨期决策的心理机制奠定基础。