喜马拉雅山地区冰湖变化及其潜在灾害评价与预警研究

Duing to global warming, the glacier melting accelerated and glacial lake expansion have caused the incerasing of frequency and influence degree of major disasters, such as glacier lakes outburst flood and others. Although the glaciers distributed in the remote mountainous, the glacial lakes outburst flood and other disasters threat the human activity in the downstream directly. With the climate warming further in the future, the Tibetan Plateau, as the most developed region of mid and low latitude glaciers in the world, will undoubtedly faces great threat of glacier disasters. So developping research and evaluation on the glacier lak change and its latent disaster in the Tibetan Plateau, and setting up monitoring the glacier lakes change and early warning mechanism,will not only have important scientific meaning to improve the forcasting ablitity of glacier disster ,but also have important present meaning to the west disaster reduction and prevention.In this project, based on the information of the historical material and multi-source remote sensing data in the Mt.Himalaya, the sourth of the Tibetan Plateau, through the comprehensive analysis and research, we will establish the spatial and temporal characteristics in glacier changes and glacier lake changes in recent decades of this region, clarify the different reason of glacial lake changes, identify the distribution area of potential dangerous glacial lakes, evaluate ecological environment impact of the potential disaster especially for the downstream area, propose corresponding countermeasures, provide scientific support for the establishment of relevant policies in economic construction and infrastructure construction of the Tibetan Plateau, and provide support for the national defense transportation construction.

全球气候变暖所导致的山地冰川加速消融退缩和冰湖扩张，已引起了冰湖溃决洪水等重大灾害发生频率的加剧和影响程度的加大。尽管冰川分布于偏远的山区，然而冰湖溃决洪水等灾害却直接威胁到人类活动密集的下游地区。随着未来气候的进一步变暖，作为世界上中低纬度冰川最发育地区的青藏高原，无疑将面临冰川灾害的巨大威胁。因此，开展青藏高原冰湖变化及其潜在灾害评价研究，建立冰湖变化监测与预警机制，不仅对提高我国冰川灾害预测能力具有重要科学意义，而且对我国西部防灾减灾具有重大现实意义。本项目以青藏高原南部喜马拉雅山地区为研究区，将揭示喜马拉雅山地区近几十年气候变化、冰川变化以及湖泊变化的时空特征，阐明不同地区冰湖变化的原因，识别具有潜在危险冰湖的分布区域，并对其潜在灾害尤其是对下游地区生态环境的影响进行评价，提出相应对策，为青藏高原地区经济建设和基础设施建设中相关政策的制定提供科学支撑。

全球气候变暖所导致的山地冰川加速消融退缩和冰湖扩张，已引起了冰湖溃决洪水等重大灾害发生频率的加剧和影响程度的加大。尽管冰川分布于偏远的山区，然而冰湖溃决洪水等灾害却直接威胁到人类活动密集的下游地区。随着未来气候的进一步变暖，作为世界上中低纬度冰川最发育地区的青藏高原，无疑将面临冰川灾害的巨大威胁。因此，开展青藏高原冰湖变化及其潜在灾害评价研究，建立冰湖变化监测与预警机制，不仅对提高我国冰川灾害预测能力具有重要科学意义，而且对我国西部防灾减灾具有重大现实意义。本项目以青藏高原南部喜马拉雅山地区为研究区，将揭示喜马拉雅山地区近几十年气候变化、冰川变化以及湖泊变化的时空特征，阐明不同地区冰湖变化的原因，识别具有潜在危险冰湖的分布区域，并对其潜在灾害尤其是对下游地区生态环境的影响进行评价，提出相应对策，为青藏高原地区经济建设和基础设施建设中相关政策的制定提供科学支撑。