细化中国经济系统的多因子区域经济气候模型集成与协同效应模拟研究

China has promised to reached carbon peak in 2030, actively participating in global climate governance. Air pollution control is another challenge Chinese government facing. Carbon dioxide emissions and air pollution have the same emission source, there is a close collaborative relationship between air pollution control and carbon emissions reduction, solving domestic environmental problems and dealing with the global climate change. Economic measures can more fully and effectively reduce carbon emissions and control air pollution. Therefore, we will build multi-factor regional economy and climate integrated assessment model with refinement of Chinese economic system, study the effect of research and development (R&D) investment on the knowledge accumulation, energy efficiency improvement, and substituting for some physical energy input, improve the mechanism of carbon taxes and environmental taxes. Then we simulate economic influence and emission reduction effect when China levying carbon tax policy and environmental tax policy, evaluate co-benefits under different tax rates, different ways of tax returns and different policy scenarios combination, provide integrated environmental strategy to achieve the goal of carbon reduction targets and air pollution control at the same time keeping economic growth steady; Consider the global economic integration and global climate governance, quantitatively study the effect of China implements different policies on the world economy and the global cumulative welfare, strive more rights for China's participation in international climate negotiations to meet the demand of national strategy.

中国承诺在2030年达到碳高峰，积极参与全球气候治理。雾霾治理是中国政府面临的又一挑战。大气污染和二氧化碳的同源性使得大气污染防治与碳减排、解决国内环境问题与应对全球气候变化之间具有密切的协同关系。经济手段可以更全面有效地减少碳排放和控制大气污染。因此，本项目将构建细化中国经济系统的多因子区域经济气候集成评估模型，将能源投入引入生产函数，研究研发投资实现知识积累以及提高能效、替代实物能源投入的作用，完善碳税和环境税机制。基于此模型，模拟中国实施碳税政策和环境税政策的经济影响和减排效果，评估不同税率水平、不同税收返还方式以及不同政策组合情景下的协同效应，为决策者提供经济平稳增长下同时达到碳减排目标和大气污染防治目标的集成环境策略；考虑全球经济一体化和全球气候治理，定量化研究中国实施不同政策对世界经济的影响和全球累积福利值变化，为中国参与国际气候谈判争取话语权，满足国家战略需求。

中国承诺在2030年达到碳高峰，积极参与全球气候治理。雾霾治理是中国政府面临的又一挑战。大气污染和二氧化碳的同源性使得大气污染防治与碳减排、解决国内环境问题与应对全球气候变化之间具有密切的协同关系。本项目对中国出口贸易中隐含的CO2排放进行测算，分析出口隐含碳的变化趋势和特征，同时对隐含碳较大的国家和部门进行比较，为中国参与国际谈判、制定节能减排政策和优化经济结构提供政策支持。其次，项目对国内各省区贸易往来中隐含的CO2和SO2排放进行对比分析，为区域大气污染治理和碳减排协同治理提供依据。此外，项目还分析了碳税和硫税政策对不同居民福利的影响，研究结果可为中国制定减排政策和区域协同发展提供参考。