天山北坡城市群城镇化进程中水安全预警及调控

Urban agglomerations at northern slope of tianshan mountains is one of the regional urban agglomerations which cultivated by the state. It is also the political，economic and cultural center of Xinjiang, but currently facing choke point restraint of water resources. It has great theoretical and practical significance to research water security of in the course of urbanization urban agglomeration at northern slope of tianshan mountains. This project will analyze the relationship between urbanization and water based on using predecessors' research results for reference. Set up on the assessment indicator system and evaluation model of water security in the course of urbanization urban agglomeration of the northern slope of tianshan mountains. Make assessment on water security status. The water security early warning index system was established, and availability and stability valuation. Based on the inspection, this project analyzes alarm with water security in the course of urbanization in the study area. The project will combine ahead analysis to put forward plans for guaranteeing water security and sustainable utilization of water resource in this project. Based on the best idea plan, this project give countermeasures for guaranteeing water security and sustainable utilization of water resource in the study area.

天山北坡城市群是国家重点培育的区域性城市群之一，也是新疆政治、经济、文化发展的重心，目前正面临水资源约束的瓶颈。研究天山北坡城市群城镇化进程中的水安全问题具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。本项目在借鉴前人研究成果的基础上，定量分析研究区城镇化与水资源交互胁迫关系与机理。建立天山北坡城市群城镇化进程中的水安全评价指标体系与评价模型，评价研究区城镇化进程中的水安全状况。构建研究区城镇化进程中水安全预警指标体系，进行有效性和稳定性检验，在通过检验的基础上，对研究区城镇化进程中的水安全进行预警分析。结合前述分析，设计多种情景的研究区城镇化进程中水安全保障、水资源可持续利用的方案，选出理想方案，进而提出研究区城镇化水安全保障和水资源可持续利用的对策和建议。

本项目以天山北坡城市群城镇化进程中水安全问题为研究的出发点，以天山北坡城市群8座城市为研究的区域，在揭示城市群城镇化与水资源交互胁迫关系与机理的基础上，对城市群水安全状况进行评价及预警，提出天山北坡城市群城镇化进程中的水安全保障及水资源可持续利用调控方案。逻辑思路即城镇化与水资源交互胁迫关系与机理、水安全状况是城市群水安全保障及水资源可持续利用调控的基础和前提。运用实证研究方法，测算天山北坡城市群水资源对城镇化的胁迫作用、城镇化与水资源的交互胁迫作用，综合评价城市群城镇化进程中水安全状况，得出了一些有价值的结论。构建天山北坡城市群水资源配置的系统动力学模型，设计水资源配置的低、中、高三种方案，并进行计算机仿真预测；自预测结果中构建水安全评价指标体系，评价水资源配置的低、中、高三种方案，经过评价分析，从中选出水安全水平较高的方案作为较优方案，为天山北坡城市群城镇化进程中水安全保障及水资源可持续利用提供量化的科学方案。研究结论和对策建议为我国重点城市群城镇化进程中水安全预警和调控提供了理论支撑，对制定城市群水安全保障及水资源可持续利用政策提供了参考依据。