城乡土地利用冲突模拟及协调——基于蚁群优化算法和博弈论的模型

Along with the quick expansion of cities, urban and rural land use conflicts are getting more and more frequent, which is hampering the new urbanization and the integration of urban-rural management. the coordination of the land use conflicts has become the key problem need to be solved in the new urbanization. In fact, land use conflict is the external representation of land use competition, and it is the conflict of land use pattern in the space. Based on this, this project intends to introduce a land use conflict simulation model based on ant colony optimization and game theory : firstly, patterns of different land use types are obtained by ant colony optimization, and then the model will find out the potential regions of land use conflicts, which is subdivided into different types, by overlay analysing of these patterns, finally the model will solve these conflicts through a series of ways such as consultation and so on. Thus the coordination process of rural and urban land use conflicts is simulated by our model. This project focuses on the coordination of land use conflicts in typical areas (such as the edge of urban and rural area) , to automatic and intelligently simulate the coordination process of urban and rural land use conflicts, so the research of this project can broaden the theory and method of urban and rural land use conflict studies, and it can be also used in practical work of land use spatial allocation, urban and rural planning and management, so we can draw a conclusion that this project has strong theoretical and practical value.

伴随着城镇的快速扩张，城乡间的土地利用冲突越来越频繁，已严重阻碍了新型城镇化的推进和城乡一体化建设，土地利用冲突协调也就成为新型城镇化中亟需解决的关键问题。实际上土地利用冲突是土地利用竞争结果的外在表象，是各地类土地利用格局在空间上表现出来的用地冲突。基于此，本项目拟构建基于蚁群优化算法和博弈论的土地利用冲突模拟及协调模型：首先用蚁群优化算法模拟各地类的用地布局，然后通过叠置分析找到土地利用冲突潜在区域，再分不同冲突类型进行博弈分析，并通过协商等一系列方式解决土地利用冲突，从而完成对城乡土地利用冲突的模拟和协调。本项目利用构建的双层模型来重点研究典型区域（如城乡边缘区域）的土地利用冲突协调，完成对城乡土地利用冲突的自动化和智能化过程模拟，能够丰富土地利用冲突研究的理论和方法范畴，研究成果也能够应用于土地利用空间布局、城乡规划管理等工作实践中，具有较强的理论价值和实践价值。

随着社会经济的发展，各类用地需求不断上涨，诱发出各种土地利用冲突问题，其模拟与协调也就成为了学术界研究的重点问题。本项目在分析土地利用冲突形成机制基础上，对蚁群优化算法进行改进设计，以模拟土地利用冲突的形成过程；同时构建了基于动态议价模型（完全信息动态博弈）的土地利用冲突协调模型，结合决策偏好等心理学、行为学方法，来模拟土地利用冲突中各利益相关者的决策行为，最终形成基于蚁群优化算法和博弈论的土地利用冲突模拟与协调耦合模型。为验证模型有效性，本项目选择城市化引发的征地冲突为典型问题，以武汉市为实证区域，从征地冲突协调视角模拟武汉市未来的城市扩张，以减少城市化进程中出现的各种征地冲突，实证结果表明耦合模型具有较高的模拟精度，能有效模拟协调征地冲突，其结果能为城市规划、地价管理等提供参考。在国土空间规划体系下，“三区三线”划定过程中必然出现冲突，如何协调这些冲突，更加科学合理地划定“三区三线”，是本模型目前和未来应用的重点问题，以期为国土空间规划提供基础依据。同时，针对特殊的土地利用冲突问题，特别是涉及太多类型的利益相关者时，本项目引入多智能体系统，能够弥补动态议价模型仅涉及两类主体的缺陷，实现了模型的拓展。