基于分布式模型的区域农业干旱过程模拟方法研究

Drought has became one of the major natural disasters in China, especially agriculture drought disaster mechanism has been the most complicated with the widest range of its involved scope and the most serious disaster effect. This research takes Henan Province as a case study in order to diagnose the temporal evolution and change process of the agricultural drought ,to find out the distribution of drought-prone areas and seasons feature;This research is also aim to identify the major causes of agricultural drought conditions event,to screening the dominant factor of affecting agricultural drought development and to recognize their contributions .We will proved the distribution and the progress of changes of drop Runoff,snowmelt,evapotranspiration,the movement of soil moisture and other elements in the study area to discriminate the mutual transformation relationship between atmospheric water, surface water, soil and groundwater;as a result of constructing simulation model of distributed agricultural drought and analysis the parameter sensitivity and the rationality of results .On the basis of empirical studies ,the research can determine relationship between the extent and the development of the agriculture drought and rainfall deficit volume, temperature, soil moisture, soil type, land use and other factors , providing a scientific basis for improving regional agricultural drought resistance.

干旱是我国首要的自然灾害之一，尤其是农业干旱成灾机理最为复杂、涉及范围最广、影响最为严重。本研究选择河南省为典型研究区域，检测诊断农业干旱时空演变规律及变化过程，摸清易旱地区和季节分布特征;识别重大农业干旱事件的成因条件，甄别影响农业旱情发展的主导因子并辨识其贡献；探明研究区降水产流、融雪、蒸散发、土壤水分运动等要素的分布状态和变化过程,辨析大气水、地表水、土壤水和地下水的相互转化关系，构建农业干旱分布式模拟模型并进行参数敏感性和结果合理性分析；实证研究基础上确定农业旱情程度及发展过程与降水亏缺量、气温、土壤水分、土壤类型、土地利用方式等要素之间关系，为提高区域农业抗旱能力提供科学依据。

（1）本研究选择河南省为典型研究区域，检测诊断农业干旱时空演变规律及变化过程，摸清易旱地区和季节分布特征；（2）识别重大农业干旱事件的成因条件，甄别影响农业旱情发展的主导因子并辨识其贡献；（3）探明研究区降水产流、融雪、蒸散发、土壤水分运动等要素的分布状态和变化过程，辨析大气水、地表水、土壤水和地下水的相互转化关系，构建农业干旱分布式模拟模型并进行参数敏感性和结果合理性分析；（4）实证研究基础上确定农业旱情程度及发展过程与降水亏缺量、气温、土壤水分、土壤类型、土地利用方式等要素之间关系，为提高区域农业抗旱能力提供科学依据。