碳交易驱动下建筑业主碳减排行为决策模型及政策优化研究

Considering the huge amount of stock and increment carbon emission associated with the Chinese building sector, it is a significant institutional innovation to employ market-based mechanisms to control and reduce the carbon dioxide emissions and promote the low-carbon development through carbon trading. However, the complex and dynamic external policy environment leads owners, who are the practical actor for responding building carbon reduction, to confront big challenges to make decision. Therefore, from the micro perspective of building owners’ behavioral decision-making response, drawing on the interdisciplinary theories from Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) , multi-objective optimization, and evolutionary game, this project integrates case studies, theoretical model development, and scenario simulations to investigate the influence path and hierarchy of both internal and external information, and reveal the behavioral mechanisms of building owners’ carbon emission reduction driven by carbon trading. Subsequently, this project proposes a set of carbon reduction decision-making model, followed by its applicability and effectiveness tested based on empirical and simulation research. The research results are expected to enrich the existing theoretical knowledge of low-carbon development in building sector and provide a new research paradigm for owners, and also greatly improve the owners’ decision-making ability and government’s policy effectiveness toward carbon reduction.

在碳排放总量和强度都持续刚性增长的建筑领域，利用市场机制，借助碳交易有效控制和减少其碳排放是一项重大的制度创新。作为建筑碳减排责任主体和直接践行者的业主，在碳交易驱动所形成的动态复杂环境下，其碳减排决策面临巨大挑战。课题从业主行为决策响应的微观视角出发，基于扩展计划行为理论、多目标决策优化理论和演化博弈理论，综合运用纵贯案例研究、数理建模、情景耕耘等方法，揭示业主碳减排信息认知模式，剖析内外因素对业主碳减排行为的影响路径和作用层级，深入挖掘碳交易驱动下业主碳减排行为机理；在此基础上构建业主碳减排决策及其动态适应性调整模型，并对其进行情景适用性检验和预测，据此开展政府低碳管制的政策优化。研究成果将丰富和深化建筑低碳发展理论知识体系，为业主碳减排行为研究提供新的研究思路和范式，切实提高业主的碳减排决策能力和政府的低碳管制政策效率。

将消费端（建筑、交通等）和生产端（工业等）统一纳入碳交易机制中，对碳排放存量和增量双管齐下，是实现双碳目标的现实需要和关键环节。但强制性碳排放限额、低碳经济补贴等复合减排政策的同步实施，再加上碳市场价格的波动、配额分配的不确定等，导致建筑业主面临的碳减排决策情景愈发复杂、动态和多变。本项目围绕建筑业主碳减排行为决策及政策优化，首先，通过公共建筑相关主体调研和居民节能行为干预实验，构建计划行为扩展模型，挖掘建筑主体节能减排行为机理；其次，构建包括技术减排成本、政府财政补贴、碳市场交易成本、违规碳排放罚金及声誉损失在内的多目标决策模型研究业主的碳减排最优决策；然后构建演化博弈拓展模型和系统动力学模型分析政府的管制政策动态适应性调整及优化。研究发现不确定性是目前阻碍建筑碳市场发展的首要因素；业主碳减排决策受补贴强度、违规惩罚倍率调整和公众参与度变化的冲击更为强烈，碳价和碳排放监管的调控可不作为建筑领域政府管制的重要着力点；目前碳市场“一刀切”的惩罚倍率极易使建筑业主陷入“明罚实奖”的惩罚悖论，政府应针对建筑领域碳排放违规行为拔高惩罚力度；政府应采用“补贴退坡”政策并对不同类型的建筑业主进行精准补贴等。项目成果可以用来指导业主在新兴碳交易机制影响下如何进行碳减排策略优化，切实提高业主的决策能力和决策效率；也为政府进一步调控和优化建筑领域碳排放管制策略提供“自下而上”的实践支撑和量化指导，从而保证环境治理的长期有效性。