上海市犯罪时空格局及形成机制研究

Criminal geography transfers the focus of crime research from people to location, explaining the formation of crime space by means of spatial-temporal overlapping of three elements, including motivation, opportunity and lack of monitoring, thus resulting in the great expansion of the conventional perspective of crime theory. However, the existing theories fail to answer the question of how these three elements could be overlapped, which is a key problem, namely the lack of analyzing the overlapping process and mechanism of these three elements. Thus, according to the data from police affairs in Shanghai, based on various spatial analysis methods, at first this project conducted researches on the spatial and temporal pattern of criminal activities in Shanghai; secondly, this project used the cross-influence of space’s physical, social and neighboring properties on the three elements (i.e. motivation, opportunity and monitoring) responsible for the formation of crime as the logic starting-point to extract the influencing factors of crime, meanwhile, various measurement models were used for examination so that the effective factors could be determined. At last, on this basis, the factors, such as opportunity and monitoring were used as the basis to determine the objective space of the city, to develop the model of objective & subjective space interaction. From the perspective of perpetrator, how the perpetrator perceives and takes advantages of space to result in the overlapping process and mechanism of motivation, opportunity and lack of monitoring was researched. Besides, the model was examined at the macro, medium and micro levels to determine its effectiveness, so that the formation mechanism of crime space in city could be expanded and the deficiencies of the existing researches could be fixed.

犯罪地理学将犯罪研究的焦点从“人”转至“地点”，以“动机、机会、监控缺失”三要素的时空重叠解释犯罪空间形成，极大地拓展了传统犯罪理论视野。然而，既有理论却未回答“三要素是如何重叠一起？”这一关键问题，即缺少对三者时空重叠过程和机制的分析。为此，本研究以上海市的警务数据为基础，基于多种空间分析方法，首先研究上海市犯罪的时空格局；其次，以空间的“物理性、社会性、邻域性”对犯罪生成三要素的“动机、机会、监控”交叉影响为逻辑起点，提取犯罪影响因子，并通过多种计量模型进行检验，确定有效因子；最后，在此基础上，以“机会、监控”因子为基础确定城市客观空间，建立“客观—主观空间交互”模型，从犯罪实施者的角度，研究犯罪实施者如何认知和利用空间，导致“动机、机会、监控缺失”三者重叠的过程和机制，并将模型置于宏观、中观、微观的层面上进行检验，以确定其有效性，从而拓展城市犯罪空间的形成机制，弥补既有研究之不足。

犯罪治理是犯罪地理研究在实践层面上的最终落脚点。为了科学治理城市犯罪，社会治安综合治理的思路需要向具体领域深入和细化。犯罪空间及形成机制的研究，是决定警力资源分配、社区参与、刑事防控、环境设计、犯罪预防的关键所在。西方犯罪地理研究在犯罪空间形成、分布以及解释方面，均取得了不少成果。但国外的理论和方法是否适用于中国这个具有特殊经济、政治、文化背景的快速发展中的大国，需要通过大量的理论和实证研究予以验证。如此才能推进符合我国国情的犯罪地理研究，促进相关理论的进一步深化、发展和创新。. 项目以犯罪空间为起点，以犯罪空间解释为落脚点，研究了上海市城市犯罪规律，构建了新的分析框架和解释模型。首先，基于多种方法和多渠道数据，探索了上海市城犯罪时空规律；其次，将“犯罪空间”置于社会转型的背景下，构建“社会—空间”分析框架。以“社会转型”、“空间重构”、“犯罪因子”、“犯罪分布”为中心节点，通过回答“社会转型如何重构城市空间”、“空间重构如何影响犯罪因子”、“犯罪因子如何影响犯罪分布”三个关键问题，建立从社会转型到犯罪分布的逻辑过程，连接城市犯罪研究的社会根源和空间表征。从而，掌握转型的社会变化与犯罪分布演变之间关联。最后，构建“客观—主观空间交互”模型，以解释城市犯罪时空分布以及时空差异的形成机制，将城市犯罪空间的解释，从空间因素、社会因素拓展到心理因素。. “社会—空间”分析框架，上承宏观社会根源，下启微观犯罪分布，将传统犯罪空间解释拓展至社会转型；“客观—主观空间交互”模型，通过研究犯罪者的空间决策机制，将传统犯罪解释拓展至心理层面。两个模型的提出，共同形成了城市犯罪空间解释的“空间”、“社会”、“心理”综合因素，并且能够整合“空间”、“社会”、“心理”的互动和关联，拓展了传统犯罪空间解释理论。