不确定条件下农业灌溉水资源多尺度协同调控与用水阈值评估

Aiming at the problems of inefficient utilizing, supply-demand contradiction and uneven space-time distribution of agricultural water in China, it is necessary to efficiently and coordinately manage agricultural irrigation water resources, which is a critical approach for the improvement of agricultural water sustainable utilization. Changing environments and scale features of agricultural irrigation systems lead to the uncertainty and complexity of agricultural irrigation allocation. Against this background, the proposed project will focus on the coordination control of agricultural irrigation water in multi-scale. The proposed project will reveal the qualitative signifying method of uncertain elements and function relationships, clarify the crucial links, the multi-process of water cycle, and the mutual feedbacks among multiple scales of irrigation allocation, develop the optimization models that are suitable for the characteristic of each scale of agricultural irrigation allocation under uncertainty, and propose the coordination control modes with the mutual response among multi-scale, multi-process and multi-objective in agricultural irrigation systems. On this basis, the project will discuss the sustainable utilization of agricultural irrigation water and the corresponding response to changing environments, and explore the estimated method of irrigation water utilization thresholds under changing environments. The research findings will promote the cognition level of multi-scale coordination control and the ability of regulation of sustainable utilization for agricultural irrigation water resources under changing environments. This has a practical significance for the raise of the strategies of efficient and sustainable management of agricultural irrigation water resources.

针对我国农业水资源利用效率低、供需矛盾突出且时空分配不均等问题，对农业灌溉水资源进行高效、协同调控是促进农业水资源可持续利用的重要途径。变化环境和农业灌溉系统的尺度特征增加了调控的不确定性和复杂性。在此背景下，以农业灌溉水资源多尺度协同调控为主线，揭示农业灌溉系统内不确定要素及函数关系的量化表征方法，明晰农业水资源配置的关键环节及水循环多过程，厘清农业灌溉水资源多尺度间配置的互馈关系，发展不确定条件下适合各尺度特点的农业灌溉水资源优化配置模型，提出农业灌溉系统内多尺度、多过程、多目标相互响应的协同调控模式。在此基础上，探讨农业灌溉水利用的可持续性及其对变化环境的响应结果，探索变化环境下农业灌溉水资源利用阈值的估算方法。研究成果将提升对变化环境下农业灌溉水资源多尺度协同调控的认知水平及水资源可持续利用的调控能力，对农业灌溉水资源高效、可持续管理策略的提出具有实践意义。

农业灌溉水资源高效调控是促进农业水资源可持续利用的重要途径。变化环境和农业灌溉系统的尺度特征增加了调控的不确定性和复杂性。本项目以黑龙江省典型灌区为例，提出了农业灌溉系统内不确定要素及函数关系的量化表征方法，发展了不确定条件下适合各尺度特点的农业灌溉水资源优化配置系列模型，探讨了农业灌溉水利用的可持续性及其对变化环境的响应特征，探索了灌溉水资源利用阈值的估算方法。取得的成果包括：（1）提出了农业灌溉水资源多尺度、多过程、多目标相互响应的协同调控模式。通过调节作物不同生育期的水量分配、水-肥最佳配比、渠道流量、种植结构、多水源利用结构等来实现节水、增产、增效同步提升的目的，发现区域层级决定供水水平，农田层级决定需水水平，两个尺度间需要反复协调，才能达到稳定的供需水平衡及社会-经济-环境协同的状态。（2）阐明了不确定性条件对农业灌溉水可持续利用的调节作用。发现研究区域供需水呈现显著的相关关系，二者的相互作用符合P-Ⅲ型边缘分布的t-copula分布特征，且供需水的联合不确定性对灌区水资源配置的影响显著；配水模型参数输入-输出不确定性呈现非线性传递关系，多源不确定性调节效应并非关联的单一不确定性效应的简单叠加。（3）提出了农业水资源利用阈值的确定方法。结合水资源配置优化模型、水资源利用综合效益评估模型、供水模拟模型，预测了灌区农业用水阈值，发现其对水资源的利用结构呈现较强的敏感性。项目研究成果为解决制约农业绿色高效发展的水资源问题提供了新方法。项目成果发表SCI论文11篇（中科院TOP期刊论文9篇，ESI高被引论文1篇，ESI热点论文1篇）；授权专利及计算机软件著作权8项；项目成果“变化环境下农业水资源多尺度可持续调控研究”获黑龙江省水利科学技术奖一等奖；培养硕士研究生3名。