基于过程模拟与优化配置耦合的灌区高效用水调控研究

The efficient use of agricultural water is the key for agricultural sustainable development. It is of great significance to conduct the study on the approaches and applications of multi-scale optimal use of irrigation water in arid irrigated areas under changing environment. The major irrigation system of the middle Heihe River basin, a typical arid irrigation district, will be selected as our study area. In the basis of the collections of basic data and observation data, it will be simulated that the spatio-temporal response of agro-hydrological processes and water productivity to different climate conditions and irrigation water amounts. The relationships between irrigation water amount and agro-hydrological variables will be quantitatively described. A surrogate model for the agro-hydrological modelling will be established with considering the driving of irrigation water and climate factors, which can provide a more efficient approach of coupling the agro-hydrological modelling and optimization model. Then a simulation-optimization model will be developed based on the coupling of a regional optimization model and the surrogate model. The simulation-optimization model will be then applied to the optimal allocation of irrigation water use of different scales, under the conditions of climate changing and different water supply levels. Based on the responses of agro-hydrological processes to different climate conditions and water allocation schemes, risk evaluations will be further conducted for each optimized scheme. Finally, reasonable water-saving schemes and optimal water use plans will be proposed for irrigation water management according to the responses of agro-hydrological processes and optimization of irrigation water allocation. This research is expected to provide a technical support and scientific reference for the efficient use and saving of irrigation water as well as sustainable development of agriculture.

农业高效用水是旱区农业可持续发展的关键，开展变化环境下的干旱灌区多尺度用水优化调控方法及应用研究具有重要意义。本项目拟以黑河中游主要灌区为研究对象，在试验观测数据与资料收集基础上，开展不同气候条件及农业节水驱动下的灌区农业水转化过程及水分生产力的时空响应模拟与量化表征研究；构建气候及农业节水驱动下的农业水转化过程响应的模拟替代模型，并将其与灌区多尺度用水优化模型耦合，探索更为高效可行的灌区灌溉水配置的模拟-优化方法，实现基于过程响应的灌区多尺度灌溉用水最优配置；进一步基于模拟-优化模型，开展气候变化背景下的灌区用水优化情景决策与风险评估研究，提出基于水管理优化与水转化过程的灌区用水优化调控方法及适宜节水方案，为变化环境下的灌区高效用水调控提供技术支撑与科学参考。

农业高效用水调控是农业可持续发展的关键，当前研究众多，其中基于过程模拟与优化配置耦合的灌区多尺度用水优化调控方法及应用研究是农业高效用水调控研究的热点。本项目在试验观测数据和资料收集基础上，通过耦合农业水文模型与智能优化算法，构建了区域灌溉用水模拟-优化耦合模型，实现了基于过程的灌区多尺度用水空间优化配置；将该模拟-优化耦合模型应用于我国西北黑河流域中游灌溉系统，开展了气候变化条件下基于过程模拟的灌区多尺度用水优化，定量评估了气候变化引起的灌区用水优化的不确定性和风险性；建立了基于LH-OAT方法的灌区用水优化模型的参数敏感性和不确定性分析方法，定量评价了优化模型中不确定性参数的全局敏感性，实现了基于高敏感性参数的灌区用水不确定性优化，从而降低了区域优化中的过度参数化和不确定性，提高了优化模型计算效率和精度；进一步对比分析了农业水文概念性模型和数值模型在模拟-优化耦合计算中的优化效果和模型效率，得出基于数值模型的模拟-优化耦合计算性能更优，更适用于进行基于过程的灌区用水优化研究。本项目前完成学术论文5篇，其中SCI收录论文2篇，EI收录论文2篇，另有2篇论文处于审稿中，项目成果可为变化环境下的灌区高效用水调控提供技术支撑和科学参考。