基于博弈理论的单向混合非机动交通流运行机理与通行效率优化方法研究

This research will analyze the phenomenon of cutting conflict in the operation of the mixed bicycle flow with high density in small/medium cities, in which the electric-bicycles are the mainly. Targeting at improving the bicycle path capacity and the mixed bicycle flow efficiency, in this research, it will study the operational characteristics of the mixed bicycle flow. In detail, it will research the game mechanism of rider’s cutting conflict between double riders, or between rider groups after analyze the rider’s cutting behavioral characteristics in the one-way bicycle path or the direct bicycle flow near the bottleneck area of an intersection. The corresponding model will be proposed in this research. Based on rider’s preference of different types for game strategy and rider group’s evolutionarily game strategy, the study will propose a method of calculating the variable slow down probability and develop cellular automata simulation models which are used to describe the operating characteristics of the one-way mixed bicycle flow in the bicycle path and the mixed bicycle flow of straight direction in the intersection. On this basis, it will analyze the random characteristics of the bicycle road section capacity and the influence including game strategy and its updating rules and external disturbance on capacity. The probability model of the bicycle path section capacity is will be proposed also. With the models of the mixed bicycle traffic flow and the probability model of the capacity, this research will develop speed threshold optimization model for the electric bicycle and propose the optimal design method of bicycle road width in order to improve the traffic efficiency of mixed bicycle flow. The research findings in this program will provide a theoretical basis for the planning and management of bicycle road in small/medium cities.

针对中小城市以电动自行车为主的高密非机动交通流运行中的抢道冲突现象，以提高道路非机动车通行能力和通行效率为目标，对混合非机动交通流运行特性进行深入研究。针对单向非机动道路路段和道路交叉口直行非机动车流中的抢道行为，分别研究两骑行者之间以及骑行者群体之间抢道冲突的博弈机理，建立抢道冲突博弈模型。通过研究不同类型骑行者的博弈策略选择偏好和骑行群体的演化博弈策略，提出可变慢化概率计算方法，并构建单向道路路段与交叉口直行非机动车流的元胞自动机模型。在此基础上，研究非机动道路通行能力的随机特性，分析博弈策略及其更新规则和外部扰动因素对通行能力的影响，建立通行能力概率计算模型。结合非机动交通流模型与通行能力概率模型，以提高非机动交通流通行效率为优化目标，建立电动自行车限速阈值优化模型，并提出非机动车道宽度的优化设计方法。本项目的研究成果可为中小城市非机动道路规划设计与管理提供理论依据。

本项目针对西南地区中小城市混合非机动车高密度交通流现象，分别从基本路段空间与交叉口空间研究非机动车骑行人特性、交通流运行机理、随机通行能力等科学问题与交通管理策略应用。在混合非机动车交通运行中，骑行人骑行行为对交通运行演变起到关键作用。项目从安全知识与安全态度两个构面研究风险驾驶行为对非机动交通安全的影响程度，构建了风险骑行行为模型。研究两类空间内交通冲突的演化特性，构建电动自行车与行人通行冲突演化博弈模型，以及两轮非机动车微观演化博弈模型。针对非机动基本路段道路环境内井盖沉陷区域对交通运行的重要影响，开展该条件下的两轮车交通流运行研究，构建两轮非机动车驾驶行为选择概率模型。分析两轮车辆遭遇柔性障碍物时的微观轨迹变化行为，结合骑行人的避让特征以及两轮车行车安全的要求，构建基于改进社会力模型的车辆柔性障碍物避障运行模型。开展非机动车道随机通行能力研究，建立非机动车道服务水平评价模型；针对平面交叉口区域，研究非机动车流的膨胀特性，建立平面交叉口通行能力测算模型。开展中小城市非机动车交通管理措施和对应设施优化研究，提出基于道路交通设施与交通流、空间条件自适应匹配分析评价的非机动车交通设施优化设置方法，优化非机动道路交通设施设置的连续性和衔接性。提出针对中小城市非机动交通运行特性的交通管理措施与建议。通过构建道路运行监测和交通状态可视化软件平台，实现对非机动道路交通运行状态的有效监测、客观评价与实时反馈，为优化非机动车交通管理措施提供决策支持。