多尺度视角下的碳市场价格驱动机制与预警策略研究

In recent years, several regional pilot carbon markets have been successively tried out in parts of China. In the future, a unified national carbon market will be built in China. As a market-based policy tool for emission reductions,the performance of a carbon market depends on its price stability mechanism. Therefore, how to favorably establish the robust price driving mechanism and early-warning system for China's carbon markets has emerged as a research hotspot.Different from the existing direct analysis of characteristics of carbon price changes,aiming at the key management scientific issues,from the perspective of multiscale analysis,combined with the status and characteristics of carbon price, this project will apply complex system science,statistics and optimization, prediction and early-warning and other approaches,to establish the multiscale analysis models,drivers identification and evaluation models for carbon price,relationship models between significant events and carbon price,impact analysis models between major events and carbon price,and early -warning strategy models for carbon market. This study will employ these models to carry out deeply quantitative research on theories and methods system of price driving mechanism and early-warning strategy for carbon market. At the same time, this study will pay attention to combination of theory and practice, aiming at the initial formation of appropriate early warning measures for different warning situations of carbon price, and condensing the practical experience from international carbon markets to help China's carbon markets construction.This project emphasizes the integration of multidisciplinary and focuses on the combination of theory and practice, which aims at building a smooth operation mechanism of China's carbon markets,and providing decision-makers with information supports and decision-making bases.

目前我国已开展区域碳市场建设试点工作，未来将建成全国统一的碳市场。作为一种基于市场机制的减排政策工具，碳市场的减排绩效取决于其价格稳定机制，所以碳市场价格驱动机制与预警策略问题凸显。与现有研究直接分析碳市场价格变化特征不同，本项目从多尺度分析角度，紧密围绕碳市场价格驱动机制与预警策略亟待解决的关键管理科学问题，协同应用统计与优化、预测与预警等理论方法，结合碳市场价格特点与现状，建立碳市场价格的多尺度辨识模型、驱动因素识别与度量模型、重大事件与碳市场价格关系模型、重大事件对碳市场价格影响分析模型以及预警策略模型，深入探讨定量研究碳市场价格驱动机制与预警的理论方法体系。同时，注重理论方法研究与实践相结合，初步形成不同预警信号情境下的碳市场价格预警应对措施，并凝练国际碳市场实践经验及其对我国的启示。本研究强调多学科的交叉融合，旨在为我国建设一个机制健全运行平稳的碳市场，提供信息支持和决策参考。

碳市场是一种基于市场机制的减排政策工具，其减排绩效取决于其价格稳定机制。与现有研究直接分析碳市场价格变化特征不同，本项目从多尺度分析角度，紧密围绕碳市场价格驱动机制与预警策略亟待解决的关键管理科学问题，协同应用统计与优化、预测与预警等理论方法，结合碳市场价格特点与现状，建立碳市场价格的多尺度辨识模型、驱动因素识别与度量模型、重大事件与碳市场价格关系模型、重大事件对碳市场价格影响分析模型以及预警策略模型，深入探讨定量研究碳市场价格驱动机制与预警的理论方法体系。同时，注重理论方法研究与实践相结合，初步形成不同预警信号情境下的碳市场价格预警应对措施，并凝练国际碳市场实践经验及其对我国的启示。