基于现货市场的供应链信息获取研究

The emergence of online spot markets has greatly facilitated spot trading and affected supply chain structures and the way commercial transactions take place between firms. The trading flexibility in spot markets can help managers better match demand and supply. However, spot trading also exposes firms to price volatilities. Supply chain members usually adopt both bilaterial contract and spot trading. The contract-spot market has become one of the prominent characteristics in many industries, such as electric power, logistics service, natural gas, metals, IT components, commodity chemicals, agricultural products and basic foodstuffs, and this mixture trading strategy can help firms achieve the sourcing flexibility from spot trading as well as effectively control their risks through bilateral contracts. Based on this type of supply chain structure, this research program will study how the information acquisition and information sharing affect the strategies and performance of supply chain members. First, we will study the effect of information acquistion and consider three different situations: (1) Considering the effect of the forecast cost, we will study the substitutes or compeliments between the demand information and the price information updatings; (2) We will compare the effect of the demand information and the price information updatings under the downstream competition. (3) We will also study the effect of information about the yield uncertainty. Second, we will investigate the effect of information sharing between the supply chain members in the presence of an online spot market. We will consider different information sharing modes, such as sharing the demand information or price information. Third, we will analyze how the index contract affects the firms' information acquisition level and information sharing, and will use principal-agent mechanism to design supply chain contracts which can coordinate the supply chain in the presence of spot market. To supplement the theoretical studies, we will empirically study the correlation coefficient between the demand of the final product and the spot price of the intermediate. We will also investigate the factors which influence the information acquistion of firms, the pricing strategy of the informaton product and the sale strategy of the consultant. The major contribution of this research program to the existing literature is that we address how information updating along multiple dimensions (demand, price and yield uncertainty) affects the decisions and performances of the supply chain members. We will focus on supply chain issues caused by the interaction between the information acquisition and the spot trading.

在线现货市场改变了传统供应链的结构，企业因此常采取"合约-现货市场"相结合的混合交易策略。以此类供应链结构为研究主体，本课题将研究市场信息获取及共享等策略对供应链上下游企业决策及利润的影响。首先，将研究三种情况下的信息获取：考虑预测成本的需求与价格两类信息互补性与替代性研究、考虑市场竞争的供应链需求与价格两类信息比较、考虑生产不确定的供应链信息非对称研究。其次，将进行基于现货市场的供应链信息共享的研究，将考虑多种类型的信息共享。再次，将研究指数合约对企业信息获取和信息共享等策略的影响；应用委托代理机制设计可行的供应链契约提高供应链的运作效率。在实证研究方面，将调研企业信息获取的影响因素；调研咨询公司定价策略与销售模式；研究大宗商品价格与终端产品需求的相关性。本课题创新之处是突出多类信息(即需求、价格和生产不确定)的获取及其相互影响，研究重点强调由于信息获取和现货市场相互作用而引发的问题。

与消费品供应链不同，大宗商品供应链的特点如下：存在现货市场和远期合约两种交易模式；企业面临着市场需求和原材料价格波动。.本项目研究内容分为三部分：.（A）在大宗商品供应链中，信息获取具有两个特点：其一，同时存在着需求和原材料现货价格两类信息；其二，由于市场需求波动和现货价格波动的相关性，需求信息可以同时更新企业对市场需求和原材料价格的认识。考虑此，我们研究了以下问题：（1）基于纵向一对一供应链，研究了下游企业应该获取市场需求还是原材料价格信息。研究发现当制造商是弱风险厌恶时，制造商会采用对供应商不利的现货价格预测；当制造商是适度风险厌恶时，两方都喜欢需求预测；当制造商是严格风险厌恶时，预测能力较强的制造商应选择需求预测。（2）基于二维信息更新，研究了两个横向竞争企业的大宗商品采购模式选择。研究发现当现货价格波动较大时，采取现货市场采购的企业将从价格波动中受益，这是因为价格波动能够及时响应市场需求的变化；从而在学术界首次揭示了价格波动的价值，并刻画了利用价格波动的条件。（3）基于双渠道采购模式，研究了企业是否应该实施提前订购折扣策略。根据提前预售量，企业可以获取需求信息并更新对未来市场需求和原材料价格的认识。.（B）在大宗商品供应链中，下游企业竞争对企业的渠道选择策略产生影响，企业需要采取各种策略来减弱企业之间的竞争。考虑此，我们研究了以下问题：（1）基于一家供应商和N家下游制造商组成的供应链，研究了下游市场进入对双渠道交易、企业定价订购策略和企业利润的影响。研究发现竞争可以减弱上游企业的风险。（2）考虑两种差异化的产品，研究了两家制造商的渠道选择问题，即应该选择整合还是分散类型渠道。.（C）港口和航运等物流系统是大宗商品供应链的重要支撑。我们研究了基于大宗商品供应链的港口、库存等几个重要的物流管理问题。.本项目所建立的模型可以为企业的大宗商品供应链和物流管理提供决策参考。