不同年代际气候变化背景下亚澳季风区主要子系统间的年际变异关系

The subcomponents of the Asian-Australian monsoon are inseparable and mutually influence with each other, which have experienced remarkable changes during different periods. However, the linkages of these subcomponents on the interdecadal time scale have uncertainty and receive relatively little attention. Thus, to better understand the monsoon systems, it is necessary to investigate how the interrelationship changes on interdecadal time scale, which is crucial for insight to the interannual to interdecadal variability of Asian-Australian monsoon system. Therefore, based on the dominant distributions of the Asian-Australian monsoon systems, we examine the interdecadal change of these dominant sub-monsoon systems comprehensively under their main features. On the basis of analyzing the interdecadal change of these principal sub-monsoon systems during recent decades, we consider the influence of interdecadal changes on the interannual variablities, the aim of this project is to explore how the interrelationship of sub-components changes under different interdecadal change background and what is the possible physical process to impact their linkages. Therefore, the objective of this project is to examine the influence of the interdecadal changes on the interrelationship of sub-monsoon systems in Asian-Australian monsoon region, aiming to improve the model simulations and forecasts, and to provide the predictive source of climate change.

亚澳季风区各子系统间相互影响、相互作用，且各子系统均存在不同时期的年代际转变。在年代际气候变化背景下，这些系统间的关系存在不确定性，因此，为了更好地探讨季风系统，有必要研究它们之间关系的变化，这对理解亚澳季风系统年际－年代际变率有着重要意义。本项目基于亚澳季风系统的整体分布，综合考虑季风变化的特性，分析亚澳季风区主要子系统的年代际变化特征；重点考察年代际转变对年际变率的影响，着重探究不同年代际变化背景下，亚澳季风区主要子系统间的年际变率关系及其调控因子和物理过程。以期加深对亚澳季风系统年际－年代际变率特征的认识，从而为模式模拟的改进和气候预测方面提供科技支撑。

亚澳季风区是全球最显著的季风区，其降水量大，空间分异性大，人口稠密，是气象灾害最为严重的地区之一。观测资料分析发现20世纪末期，气候系统陆续出现了年代际转折。亚澳季风系统作为全球气候系统的重要组成部分亦发生了年代际转变。本项目根据多源资料深入分析不同年代际变化背景下，亚澳季风区主要子系统（包括降水场、风场等）间的相互关系。研究揭示了20世纪90年代初及2000年初，亚澳季风系统发生了显著的年代际改变，其转变与热带及中高纬海洋和大气环流系统密不可分。该研究明确了年代际变化对亚澳季风区主要子系统间年际变异关系的影响，加深了我们对亚澳季风重要子系统年际‒年代际变化特征及其调制过程的认识，从而为亚澳季风系统的预测提供了科学支撑。