基于系统仿真模拟的生态型灌区量化评价研究

Developing ecological irrigation district is one of important ways to solve the water resources shortage and ecological environment deterioration, and its quantitative research is still in the primary phase at present. This project defines the ecological irrigation district, establishes evaluation index system based on water resources saving, high-output and high-efficiency and healthy ecological environment. To identify sensitive index using self- organizing data mining theory and set up their set. A water allocation simulation model of irrigation district is developed by employing the system simulation theory, and a non-point source pollution simulation model is derived based on hydrological process of irrigation district, then to analyze the relationship between the sensitive indicators and water consumption and pollutant output. In order to explore the relationship between sensitive index and irrigation benefit, we provide a benefit assessment model of irrigation district, and then quantitative evaluation method will be presented. To provide the best regulation project using proposed regulation optimization model. These derived models are applied to Jinghuiqu irrigation district, which will provide the theoretic foundation for developing ecological irrigation district. The study is valuable and significant for enriching the quantitative theory of ecological irrigation district.

生态型灌区建设是解决灌区水资源短缺和生态环境恶化的重要途径之一。目前我国生态型灌区量化研究还处于探索阶段。本项目在界定生态型灌区内涵的基础上，以资源节约、高产高效和生态环境良好为灌区建设目标，构建生态型灌区评价指标体系，采用自组织数据挖掘理论等技术识别敏感指标，并建立生态型灌区敏感指标集；基于系统仿真原理建立生态型灌区水量分配仿真模型，以灌区水文过程为基础构建非点源污染模拟模型，分析生态型灌区敏感指标与灌区用水总量及污染物输出量之间的关系；建立生态型灌区效益评估模型，探析生态型灌区敏感指标与灌区效益之间的量化关系，提出生态型灌区评价标准量化方法，确定敏感指标阈值；提出生态型灌区调控方案优选模型，探讨生态型灌区建设的最佳调控方案，通过在泾惠渠灌区的应用，以期为生态型灌区建设和管理提供理论依据和技术支撑，对于丰富和完善生态型灌区量化评价理论具有重要的研究意义。

生态型灌区建设是解决灌区水资源短缺和生态环境恶化的重要途径之一。生态型灌区仿真模拟研究对于丰富和完善生态型灌区量化评价理论具有重要的研究意义。项目在界定生态型灌区内涵的基础上，以资源节约、高产高效和生态环境良好为灌区建设目标，以泾惠渠灌区为研究区域，开展了生态型灌区系统仿真模拟研究，得出主要研究结果如下：（1）采用专家咨询、频次统计、主成分分析、灰色关联等方法诊断识别了生态型灌区敏感指标，构建了3个子系统18个指标的生态型灌区评价指标体系；（2）采用SPA-VFS、云模型和灰色关联分析模型构建生态型灌区系统评价模型，对泾惠渠灌区2001-2013年生态型灌区发展水平分析评价，揭示了生态型灌区系统演化趋势，泾惠渠灌生态型灌区系统发展态势总体呈现波动上升趋势发展等级均属于第III等级基本生态型和第IV 等级良好生态型，探明了生态型灌区敏感指标与水资源、社会经济及生态环境子系统演化之间的响应关系；（3）构建了泾惠渠灌区水资源系统模拟预测模型，预测不同水平年灌区可供水资源状况；识别了社会经济用水系统中的驱动因子，建立用水系统模拟预测模型，预测不同水平年灌区用水量，揭示了用水驱动因子与灌区用水系统间的响应关系；（4）以最严格水资源管理制度的“三条红线”作为灌区效益目标，开展泾惠渠灌区系统模拟预测研究，确定满足灌区效益目标要求的敏感指标阈值，探明生态型灌区敏感指标与灌区效益之间的定量关系；（5）构建了基于系统动力学和多目标规划原理的SD-MOP灌区系统仿真优化模型，确定区各子系统间的反馈关系，分析了敏感指标与各子系统需水量之间的响应关系，优化了生态型灌区各子系统的水资源分配量，优化了生态型灌区调控方案；生态型灌区系统仿真模拟研究为生态型灌区建设和管理提供理论依据和技术支撑。