基于预报及其不确定性的水库风险对冲调度研究

Changing environment induced by climate change and human activities has seriously challenged the assumption of stationarity in hydrology. Conventional theories and approaches of reservoir operation, which lie on the assumption of stationarity, must be developed to adapt the changing environment. Dynamically updated reservoir operation based on hydrological forecasts is an important approach to adapt changing environment,which is also a new research field. Considering forecast-based dynamic reservoir operation as fundamental research focus, this study explores the uncertain characteristics of forecasts, the economic characteristics of operation objectives, and the hedging rules which couple them together. The research goals include: (1) discovering the statistical characters of forecast error and proposing approaches to determine the effective forecast horizon; (2) analyzing the economic characters of operation objectives and developing new efficient algorithms; and (3) presenting hedging rules for reservoir operation under changing environment. This study focuses on the scientific issues of forecast-based reservoir operation, and aims at developing scientific and practical theories, models and applications to support the reservoir management under changing environment.

由气候变化和人类活动导致的变化环境，使得水文系列的稳态性假定受到了巨大的挑战。基于稳态性假定的传统水库调度理论与方法迫切需要新的发展来应对变化环境。 根据水文预报和实时需求进行动态的、滚动更新的水库调度管理，是应对变化环境重要手段。 本研究以基于水文预报及其不确定性的水库风险调度为基本问题，从水文预报的不确定性特征、调度目标的经济学特性和基于水文-经济耦合的风险对冲调度理论与模型三个方面进行研究，力求：(1)揭示水文预报误差的统计学特性，提出水文预报有效预见期的确定方法；(2)分析调度目标的经济学特性，开发新的高效算法；（3）基于水文预报的统计学特性与调度目标的经济学特性，提出变化环境下水库风险对冲调度的理论方法。本研究从预报-调度这一新模式下的基本科学问题出发，期望提供具有科学意义和应用价值的理论基础、模型方法和应用案例，为变化环境下的水库调度提供支撑。

基于稳态性假定的传统水库调度理论与方法迫切需要新的发展来应对变化环境。本项目以基于水文预报及其不确定性的水库风险调度为基本问题，进行了深入的理论、模型和案例研究，揭示了水文预报误差的统计学特性，提出了水文预报有效预见期的确定方法，分析了水库调度目标的经济学特性，基于水文预报成果与调度目标的经济学特性，构建变化环境下水库动态调度的理论基础和风险对冲调度模型，开发了新的算法，结合疏勒河昌马水库和长江流域的丹江口水库进行了案例应用研究，验证了理论模型方法的有效性，完成了既定研究目标。本研究从预报-调度这一新模式下的基本科学问题出发，提出了具有科学意义和应用价值的理论基础、模型方法和应用案例，可为变化环境下的水库调度提供支撑。