不同尺度海洋溢油风险分区方法研究

Abrupt marine oil spill pollution accidents occur more and more frequently. Scientific and rational zonation of marine oil spill risk could provide an important tool for preventing and reducing such accidents. The components and measuring method of the oil spill risk system and the risk zonation will be chosen for in-deep study, based on the analysis of typical cases of marine oil spill accidents occurred and summarizing the present oil spill risk theories, environmental risk theories and natural disaster risk theories. Furthermore, a technique to marine oil spill risk zonation will be proposed. It involves with building the risk system, index system and measuring model, which using the methods of literature research, field survey, mechanism analysis, case studies, model construction and GIS. The technique will be applied in the case of risk zonation of marine oil spill accident in Dalian and Liaodong Bay district. The study will be important to marine oil spill management by providing a scientific basis for decision making for marine oil spill prevention.

突发性海洋溢油污染事故日趋频繁，科学合理的海洋溢油风险分区可为预防和减少这类事故提供管理依据。本项目基于典型的海洋溢油污染事故案例分析，总结溢油风险已有研究并借鉴环境风险系统和自然灾害风险系统已有研究，选择溢油风险系统的组成、量化方法以及风险分区三个方面开展深入研究，综合运用文献调研、现场踏查、机理分析、案例分析、模型构建和地理信息系统支持等方法与手段，构建海洋溢油风险系统、风险表征指标体系和量化模型，提出海洋溢油风险分区方法。并以大连市近岸海域和辽东湾海域两个尺度进行海洋溢油风险分区示范。项目研究对海洋溢油风险管理具有重要意义，能够为海洋溢油风险防范提供科学的决策依据。

本研究从溢油风险因子释放与形成机理及其影响因素入手，对典型的溢油污染事件开展事件过程分析和形成机理分析；总结风险系统已有研究并借鉴自然灾害风险系统理论，识别溢油风险系统的组成、特征以及风险形成机理；进一步剖析溢油风险的形成条件、影响因素及其相互作用，明确溢油风险系统各组成之间及各组成与系统之间关系，建立不同尺度溢油风险分区指标体系，并根据危险性及其表征指标之间、脆弱性及其表征指标之间的相互作用，提出危险性量化模型和脆弱性量化模型，并构建相应的溢油风险量化模型。在指标体系和量化模型研究基础上，结合风险管理实践，建立基于GIS的海洋溢油污染事件风险分区方法。.以大连市和辽东湾近岸海域为例，开展海洋溢油污染事件风险分区示范，应用溢油风险分区方法，将大连市和辽东湾近岸海域分别划分为高风险区、中风险区和低风险区三类。在风险分区的基础上，进行各分区单元的特征描述，确定各风险区的主控风险因子，针对性提出溢油风险防范的对策措施，为溢油风险管理提供了决策依据，对于全面提高溢油风险防范和应对重大溢油事故的综合能力具有重大意义。