盛夏西太平洋副热带高压异常南落的机理研究

In 1998 summer the anomalous flood over mid-low Yangzi river occured. It is related on the abrupt movement southward of Western Pacific Subtropical High. The poluttion and desertization in North China are the reasons causing the climate anomaly from 1980.Numerical and dynamical analyses show the heat source forcing has very important infuence on stream-potential fields and restricting Subtropical High.Based on data set, analysis shows the internal modulation of atmospheric circulation systerm and the accumulation of low frequency wave are two important mechanisms causing abrupt movement sonthward of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in mid-summer of 1998.

本项目将通过诊断分析、数值计算和数值模拟研究盛夏西太平洋副高异常南落的充分必要条件，研究导致低频位势波持续汇集的环境因素，研究这类低频波的性质和传播特征以及与盛夏副高异常南落的内在联系，以期提出盛夏副高异常南落的一种可能机制，为汛期预报提供新思路和依据。