集成电动汽车全轨迹空间的城市电网可靠性评估理论及提升策略研究

Rapid development and scale integration of electric vehicles (EVs) bring a great impact on the reliability of urban power grid. However, the traditional assessment method could not handle it well, which objectively requires a breakthrough on the assessment model and calculation method. In order to solve the problem, the modeling method for EVs’ whole trajectory space is proposed in the ‘EV - traffic network - power grid’ coupled system, which can well describe EVs’ dynamic spatial and temporal behaviors and energy features in the daily whole process. Based on that, the reliability assessment theory for urban power grid integrated with the whole trajectory space is proposed, as well as the new reliability index systems. In the reliability assessment, the controllable power emergency coordinated capability of EVs is investigated, and the flexible response strategy of ‘individual–aggregator’ for each district is designed for participating in the optimal load curtailment, whose reliability enhancement benefits are quantified by an assessment method. The strategy reveals the optimization mechanism for power grid reliability from the individual EV in the controlled aggregator with uncertain trajectories. On the basis of the above studies, the key sensitive factors are dug based on the perturbation method, and the gaming correlation and interactive function between the power grid reliability enhancement and the corresponding EVs’ service loss are investigated. Based on that, a novel expanded siting approach for the urban charging infrastructures is proposed, which aims to achieve the equilibrium enhancement of the system reliability. The studies are tested and verified on the standard and real systems. The research achievements will provide a theoretical support for evaluating and enhancing reliability of the urban grid with scale integration of EVs.

电动汽车快速发展与规模化接入给城市电网可靠性带来深远影响，传统评估难以准确量化，客观上要求评估模型与计算方法突破。为此，本项目提出“车-路-网”耦合下全轨迹空间建模方法，实现电动汽车“时间-空间-行为-能量”日全过程动力学特征描述。由此提出集成电动汽车全轨迹空间的城市电网可靠性评估理论，构建新型可靠性指标体系。在评估过程中，挖掘电动汽车电力应急可调控潜力，设计“个体-群”分区分层弹性响应策略参与最优负荷削减，提出可靠性提升定量评估方法，揭示包含轨迹不确定特点的电动汽车个体在集群被控状态下对电网可靠性的优化机理。在此基础上，基于摄动法挖掘关键敏感因素，辨识电网可靠性提升与伴生电动汽车服务损失之间的博弈关联与交互作用，由此提出新型城市充电设施扩展选址方法，实现系统可靠性均衡提升；基于标准与实际系统进行仿真验证。研究成果将为电动汽车规模接入下城市电网可靠性评估及提升提供理论支撑。

本项目聚焦电动汽车高渗透率下个体“时间-空间-行为”特征及其与电网双向功率交互冲击对城市电网可靠性的影响，挖掘电动汽车集群对城市电网可靠性的提升潜力，研究提出集成全轨迹空间的集成可靠性评估方法及提升策略，并在“三维一体” 全轨迹空间建模、耦合系统可靠性指标体系构建、可靠性关联分析算法、电动汽车集群可调控裕度及优化运行策略、充电站与配电网协同规划等科学问题上实现了理论突破，能为电网、政府、企业在评估电动汽车可靠性影响与可靠性提升策略等方面提供参考，在此研究基础上也申请获得了一系列相关专利与横纵向课题，实现工程应用。项目研究培养了多名优秀博硕士研究生与青年骨干研究人员，发表学术论文28篇，其中包含Energy等高水平SCI期刊论文13篇，申请专利5项(授权1项)。.具体而言，本项目理论研究内容主要包含以下几点。紧密结合我国电动汽车规模化发展、接入城市电网实际，围绕电动汽车接入电网对“车-路-网”耦合系统可靠性影响及其可靠性提升策略进行分析。提出城市电动汽车全轨迹空间概念与建模方法，揭示电动汽车在全轨迹空间下“时间-空间-行为-能量”全过程动力学特征；提出集成电动汽车接入下城市电网可靠性评估理论，实现规模化电动汽车接入与协同下城市电网可靠性计算方法改进；通过关键敏感参数摄动分析，定量评估电网可靠性提升效益与电动汽车出行充电服务可靠性之间博弈关联特性，提出城市电网可靠性关联分析评估方法，构建提供面向可靠性均衡提升的充电基础设施-配电网协同规划模型及可靠性提升策略。