水资源管理决策过程的不确定性和决策行为模拟研究

During water resources management decision-making more risks could be faced because of increasing uncertainties that influence decision-making processes and complexity of water resources management problems extended. Objective of the project is to apply the human ethology and decision-making theory to water resources management, and to improve the water resources management decision support system framework. Accordingly, an uncertainty assessment model would be developed by analyzing the uncertainty sources that influence decision-making processes and taking into account the effects on external environment and decision-makers' perceive to decision-making processes. Then belief probability of uncertainty would be calculated for decision-makers. In addition, the reference point would be calculated by using framework theory, which indicates decision-makers' behavior change to risk aversion and bias during choice of decision-making references. Decision-making behavior simulation model would be established according to prospect theory. Finally all of models would be integrated into the effective water resources management decision support system to simulate decision-making processes of water resources management. The coming research is significance for water resources management decision-makers to improve efficiency of water resources management by means of developing new water resources management decision support system framework and decreasing decision-making risk of water resources management.

由于水资源管理问题涉及的领域越来越广，影响决策过程的不确定性因素越来越多，给决策带来的风险也越来越大。本项目拟将人类行为学和决策理论应用到水资源管理中，综合考虑决策者所处的外部环境和决策者自身对决策过程的影响，分析引起决策结果变化的不确定性源，建立不确定性评价模型，评价每种不确定性在决策过程中的可信度概率；以描述决策者在决策过程中对不同决策方案风险规避和偏好的参考点的变化为核心，建立决策行为模拟模型；将不确定性评价模型和决策行为模拟模型集成到已有的成熟的水资源管理决策支持系统中，模拟水资源管理决策过程。这对于改善水资源管理决策支持系统框架，减少纯理性决策带来的风险具有重要意义。

由于水资源管理问题涉及的领域越来越广，影响决策过程的不确定性因素越来越多，给决策带来的风险也越来越大。通过决策者决策行为调查，分析引起决策结果变化的不确定性源，建立决策行为模拟模型，并以此为基础，结合SDGs、情景分析和科学模型建立了流域可持续发展决策支持系统。主要研究成果包括：1）通过耦合证据理论和前景理论，发展了基于主观和客观不确定性的决策行为模拟模型对决策问题进行主观赋权；2）将联合国SDGs降尺度到流域尺度，结合流域特征，建立了流域尺度可持续发展目标体系；3）提出了耦合科学模型和决策模型的双层集成模型框架；4）建立了流域可持续发展决策支持系统。实现了不同情景（外部环境（四类情景：气候情景、土地利用情景、社会经济情景和水资源管理情景）和决策者自身因素）下流域未来水、生态和社会经济要素的变化趋势，以及可持续发展目标和指标的可持续性的综合评价。目前已发表和接收的论文5篇，其中SCI论文3篇，申请发明专利4项（1项授权，3项处于实审阶段），软件著作权3项；培养研究生1名。