煤炭资源采矿权案例估价理论与方法研究

In the process of coal resource integration, the case-based evaluation method of coal resource mining right is the most effective method which can fully embody the value of mining right. The present methods about case-based mining right evaluation home and abroad are fairly simple, and don't solve the key problems such as the criterion of case selecting, the set-up of similarity model and so on. Based on the theories and methods of case-decision and modern statistics, this project firstly reveals the basic principle of case-based evaluation method of coal resource mining right, defines attribute index, attribute strength function, the underlying asset, the case assets, and case similarity, completely resolves the index which can reflect the properties of mining right, constructs the index system including single-index and compound index, set up index evaluation function and evaluation model; then establish the criterion of case selecting and similarity model, provides the method of solving model; finally build the case-based evaluation model of coal resource mining right and its process. On the basis of all the researches above, case study is performed and some suggestions are made about the managing policies of mining right evaluation. The case-based valuation method of mining right is bound to provide theoretical and methodological support for the coal rational allocation of resources and mining rights market building.

在煤炭资源整合过程中，基于案例的煤炭资源采矿权估价方法是最能体现采矿权市场价值的一种有效方法。目前国内外关于基于案例的煤炭资源采矿权估价方法过于简单，没有解决案例选取准则和相似度模型建立等关键问题。本项目基于案例决策和现代统计学等理论和方法，首先揭示基于案例的煤炭资源采矿权估价基本原理，对属性指标、属性强度函数、标的资产、案例资产以及案例相似度等关键概念进行界定，完备地解析出反映煤炭资源采矿权属性的指标，构建由单指标和复合指标构成的指标体系，建立指标评价函数和评价模型；然后建立采矿权案例选取准则和相似度模型，给出模型求解方法；最后建立基于案例的煤炭资源采矿权估价模型和基于案例的煤炭资源采矿权估价流程，在此基础上进行实证研究并提出相应的煤炭资源采矿权评估管理政策建议。由此形成的基于案例的煤炭资源采矿权估价方法，必将为煤炭资源合理配置和采矿权交易市场建设提供理论和方法上的支持。

科学合理地对煤炭资源采矿权进行估价是最优配置煤炭资源的关键所在。随着煤炭资源采矿权交易市场的快速发展，案例估价方法将在煤炭资源采矿权估价中变得越来越重要。在对国内外相关研究追踪和分析的基础上，本项目基于资产评估、人工智能、案例决策和现代统计学等理论和方法，揭示了基于案例的煤炭资源采矿权估价基本原理，对属性指标、属性强度函数、标的采矿权、案例采矿权以及案例相似度等关键概念进行了界定，完备地解析出了反映煤炭资源采矿权属性的指标，构建了由单指标和复合指标构成的指标体系，建立指标评价函数和评价模型；然后建立了采矿权案例表示框架、选取准则和相似度模型，给出了相似度模型求解方法，明确了基于案例的煤炭资源采矿权估价模型体系；建立了基于案例的煤炭资源采矿权估价基本模型和基于案例的煤炭资源采矿权估价流程；建立了基于案例的煤炭资源采矿权估价线性模型，包括属性强度函数已知下的煤炭资源采矿权估价模型和属性函数未知下的煤炭资源采矿权估价模型；建立了基于案例的煤炭资源采矿权非线性模型和基于案例的煤炭资源采矿权估价组合模型；对上述模型进行了实例运用，此基础上提出了相应的煤炭资源采矿权评估管理政策建议。由此形成的基于案例的煤炭资源采矿权估价方法，必将为煤炭资源合理配置和采矿权交易市场建设提供理论和方法上的支持。