浙西山地暴雨形成的宏观机理研究

This project grasps the macro-mechanism of the torrential rain formation in the mountain area of the west part of Zhejiang province and studies it. The structure and propagation futures of the main meso-scale system, which leads to the torrential rain in the west part of Zhejiang province, are studied concentratively. Meanwhile, the instability, which induces the occurrence of the torrential rain in the mountain area, is studied too. Besides that, the trigger mechanisms induced by terrain lifting, wind shear and unbalance caused by gravity waves are also studied. After that, the quantitative contribution of the moisture, which comes from different moisture sources, to the moist supply of the torrential rain in the west part of Zhejiang province is studied as well. Finally, 4 gradient observational auto-stations are set up. The aim is to get gradient observation data and the data are used to compare with numerical simulation results and to analyze the meso-scale system structures. The formation process of the torrential rain in the mountain area of the west part of Zhejiang province is probed into objectively and truly, so that the solid theoretical foundation of promoting the torrential rain forecasting level in the mountain area is set up and scientific forecasting thinking is emerged. Therefore, this study has very important significance and scientific value for promoting heavy rainfall prediction, preventing from flood and protecting peoples life, in addition, this is needs of reducing and preventing from disasters induced by the torrential rain and utilizing water resources properly.

本项目抓住直接造成浙西山地暴雨形成的宏观机理进行研究。集中研究造成浙西山地暴雨的主要中尺度系统的结构及其移动传播特性；浙西山地暴雨发生过程中的不稳定特征及性质；地形抬升、风切变、及山地重力波引起的动力不平衡对浙西山地暴雨的触发作用；不同水汽来源对浙西山地暴雨水汽定量供应的贡献。并建立４个梯度观测自动站，以便获取梯度观测资料，用于数值模拟结果的对比与验证，以及用于中尺度系统结构的分析。力求真实客观揭示浙西山地暴雨的形成过程，为提高浙西山地暴雨的预报水平奠定坚实的理论基础，并提供科学的预报新思路。可见本项目的研究，将对提高浙西山地暴雨的预报、防汛，保障该地区人民生命财产安全都具有极其重要的现实意义和科学价值，也是浙西地区减少暴雨灾害和合理利用水资源的迫切需求。

本项目通过对浙西地区降水个例以及统计数据的分析来研究浙西山地暴雨的发生机理。通过资料分析和数值模拟的手段，研究造成浙西山地暴雨的主要中尺度系统的结构及其移动传播特性。研究浙西山地暴雨发生过程中的不稳定特征及性质。研究地形抬升、风切变、及山地重力波引起的动力不平衡对浙西山地暴雨的触发作用。研究不同水汽来源对浙西山地暴雨水汽定量供应的贡献。所有论文发表后完成了项目研究的目标。已发表论文17，其中SCI 11篇，超过项目要求的SCI论文数目，总篇数达到项目要求。培养毕业博士生2名，硕士生1名。