基于小流域尺度快速城市化与水环境安全耦合机理研究

The 21st century is a rapid development period of China's urbanization. The highly concentrated population, the fast aggregation of industry and the rapid expansion of urban land exacerbate water resources crisis and water environment pollution problems, and then lead to severe challenges for water environment safety. This work mainly studies the Xiaoqing river basin of Shandong province, which is located in rapid urbanization areas along China's eastern coast. Based on time scale data of recent 30 years, the urbanization process of Xiaoqing river basin is analyzed from aspects of population urbanization, space urbanization, industry urbanization, land urbanization, etc. And water environment safety evolution trend in the basin is analyzed in terms of the safety of water environment quality and water resources. Besides, coupling index system between basin urbanization and water environment safety is established. Adopting system integration method based on the combination of qualitative and quantitative, and from the perspective of theory combining with practice, the study is intended to discuss the influential effect of urbanization development on water environment safety, and the influence of water environment safety on urbanization process. Additionally, by screening the key coupling factor which could identify river basin urbanization and water environment safety to reveal the coupling mechanism between Xiaoqing river basin urbanization and water environment safety. The research achievement has important theoretical and practical significance for guaranteeing river basin water environment safety in rapid urbanization areas.

21世纪是中国城市化迅速发展的时期，人口高度集中、产业快速聚集、城市用地急剧扩展，使流域水资源危机和水环境污染问题进一步加剧，水环境安全面临严峻挑战。本课题以位于我国东部沿海快速城市化区域的山东省小清河流域为例，以近30年时间尺度数据为基础，拟从人口城市化、空间城市化、产业城市化、土地城市化等方面分析小清河流域城市化发展进程，从水质安全和水量安全两个方面分析该小清河流域水环境安全演化趋势，构建流域城市化与水环境安全耦合指标体系，采用定性与定量有机结合的系统集成方法，从理论和实践结合的角度，探讨城市化发展对水环境安全的影响效应以及水环境安全对城市化过程的影响；筛选识别流域城市化与水环境安全的关键耦合因子，力求揭示小清河流域城市化与水环境安全之间的耦合作用机理。课题研究成果将对保障快速城市化地区流域水环境安全具有重要理论及实践意义。

近30年是中国城市化迅速发展的时期，人口高度集中、产业快速聚集、城市用地急剧扩展，使流域水资源危机和水环境污染问题进一步加剧。本项目以位于我国东部沿海快速城市化区域的山东省小清河流域为研究对象，探讨了流域快速城市化与水环境安全耦合机理。主要研究内容包括：完成区域城市化与水环境安全的基础理论研究内容；构建完成了流域城市化与水环安全耦合指标体系与耦合模型，已从人口城市化、经济城市化、空间城市化、社会城市化等四个方面选取城市化测度指标，从水环境和水资源两个方面选取水环境安全指标，构建城市化子系统的测度指标体系和水环境安全子系统的评价指标体系；应用耦合协调度和协调发展模型来度量流域城市化与水环境安全耦合协调发展情况，选取小清河中上游济南段、淄博段为例，开展了流域城市化与水环境安全耦合实证研究；回顾和分析了小清河流域三个治理阶段的治理政策，在对1996-2012年小清河流域水质变化趋势分析的基础上，对流域治理政策的水环境效应进行了分析；最后提出了小清河流域可持续发展建议。目前本项目研究已经按照计划完成，共发表学术论文6篇，其中SCI收录论文2篇，参加学术会议3次，培养硕士生7名。研究成果为快速城市化地区发展过程中的科学决策提供理论依据，为进一步深入开展流域城市化过程中的水环境安全预警研究奠定基础。