基于多维博弈的区域港口群双层竞合策略研究

The international trade drives Chinese seaports to become the world leading ocean transportation hubs. Five mature regional port systems are formed, Bohai Circle port system, Yangze River Delta port system, South-east port system, Pearl River Delta port system, South-west port system. The government,the enterprise and the academia emphasize the port competition and cooperation in the regional port system. Due to the complexity of the port logistics, most existing research focuses on the qualitative analysis and little research is in the quantitative analysis. A few mathematical model studies about the port co-opetition (competition and cooperation at the same time) are only related to the container terminal operator decisions. Our research will propose two-level multidimensional game models to consider both the hinterland logistics service investment of the local government, and the terminal operator's price and service decisions. We will differentiate the characteristics of the transshipment and original/destination (OD) containers. The situation when terminals in different ports are owned by the same operator is considered. Through the model analysis and numerical study, we intend to investigate the effect of the co-opeartion process on the local economic development. This research will fill the gap in the port co-opetition literature and provide suggestions for the related decision makers.

近年来，我国沿海港口在国际贸易的推动下迅速崛起，并形成了环渤海、长江三角洲、东南沿海、珠江三角洲和西南沿海等五个成熟的港口群。区域港口群中各港之间的无序竞争势必会造成资源浪费和容量闲置，影响区域经济的长远发展。因此，政府部门、企业界和学术界都逐渐开始重视港口群中竞争与合作的共存发展。本项目将构建以腹地物流系统水平、港口服务价格和服务质量为决策变量的多阶段多维博弈模型来刻画港口群双层竞合关系，突破以往码头运营商单层竞合研究的局限，注重港口群中地方政府和码头运营商两个层面上的竞争与合作关系。本项目的研究强调中转型和腹地型集装箱的差异，并考虑码头运营商同时在不同港口中运作的现象，采用模型分析和数值研究来探讨竞合过程给区域经济带来的影响。项目的研究成果将丰富港口竞合关系理论，并为相关政府部门和港口企业提供决策参考。

目前，我国各大港口群中的合作竞争虽然已初现端倪，但还远远不够。因此关于港口竞合关系的研究对政府宏观决策以及码头的运作管理都将具有重要意义。本项目构建以腹地物流系统水平、港口服务价格和服务质量为决策变量的多阶段多维博弈模型来刻画港口群双层竞合关系，突破以往码头运营商单层竞合研究的局限，注重港口群中地方政府和码头运营商两个层面上的竞争与合作关系。本项目的研究发现港口群中的合作决策不一定会为港口城市政府及码头运营商带来双赢的结果。项目组撰写的关于港城关系的研究报告以及发表的相关港口竞合的学术期刊论文为相关政府决策者和码头运营商提供了决策参考。