珠江三角洲河口区海平面上升咸潮上溯的水资源响应与调控

In this application, we will continue studying water problems under the impact of salinity intrusion in the estuary of the Pearl River, about which we have already achieved significant results in our previous project "Pattern and Quantified Response of Hydrological Regimes Variation in PRD (2009-2012, NNSFC Grant No. 50839005). Basing on our previous discoveries in the mechanism of salinity intrusion, with an emphasis on aspects as obvious change in salinity intrusion rule, severe variation in upstream inflow, significant change of water-sediment transport balance within river drainage system, and abrupt shift in supply-demand system of water resources under the impact of sea-level rising in the Pearl River Estuary, we will 1) recognize the spatial and temporal changing pattern of water resource elements, which has been influenced by salinity intrusion and sea-level rising in estuary; 2) evaluate supply-demand risk of water resources under the influence of rising sea-level and salinity intrusion in the Pearl River Estuary; 3) assess the vulnerability of supply-demand system of water resource under the impact of salinity intrusion driving by sea-level rising; 4) construct sophisticated water resource regulation model basing on Synergetics, Chaology and CAS (Complex Adaptive System) theory, which can deal with the impact of sea-level rise and salt tide tracking back in the Pearl River Estuary; 5) propose a program on securing water supply under the impact of sea-level rising and salinity intrusion in the Pearl River Estuary, basing on the allocation model. It is of great significance to recognize new patterns and rising problems in water resources caused by the impact of sea-level rising and salinity intrusion in estuary. Besides, it is also important to reasonably control the threat in water supply risk brought by salinity intrusion and sea-level rising.

接续本申请者完成的"珠江三角洲区域水文要素变异及其水资源响应量化研究"（2009-2012, 50839005）对河口区咸潮上溯的水资源问题的研究，以该项目完成的咸潮上溯机理研究成果为基础，重点针对珠江三角洲网河区海平面上升作用下咸潮上溯规律变化明显、河道上游来水变化剧烈、河道系统水沙输移平衡改变显著、水资源供需系统变异突出等问题，识别河口区伴随海平面上升咸潮上溯的水资源特征时空演化规律；评价河口区海平面上升咸潮上溯影响下的水资源供需风险；评估咸潮影响下水资源供需系统的脆弱性；构建珠江三角洲河网区以应对海平面上升咸潮上溯影响下水资源安全保障为目标的，基于协同学、混沌学、复杂适应系统理论的复杂性水资源调控整体模型；基于配置模型提出珠江河口区海平面上升咸潮上溯影响下的供水安全保障方案。对于认识河口区海平面上升咸潮上溯背景下的水资源新问题新规律、合理调控咸潮上溯威胁的供水风险具有重要意义。

本项目自立项4年以来， 通过国际合作和交流， 紧跟国内外学术研究前沿，以珠江三角洲河口区海平面上升咸潮上溯威胁下的水资源协同调控为主线，通过针对性的理论方法创新和交叉学科应用，采用线性趋势分析、小波分析方法，分析了变化环境下咸潮及包括海平面高程在内的影响因子的变化规律；采用集对分析、非参数分析、主成分分析以及Spearman相关等分析方法，研究了咸潮与其影响因子的相互作用关系。. 另一方面，构建了B-P神经网络模型、随机森林模型，进行了珠江三角洲河口区海平面上升驱动下咸潮上溯的短期、中长期预测，并在咸潮及其影响因子相关关系分析的基础上，建立了基于时滞的预测模型，比较了随机森林模型、神经网络模型和基于时滞的神经网络模型在不同时间尺度咸度预测方面的效果；采用数学模型和数理统计的方法研究了珠江三角洲河口区压咸补淡时机和措施。以上研究成果在研究区珠江三角洲地区得到了成功应验，本项目全面完成了原计划的海平面上升驱动作用下咸潮上溯规律变化规律探究，构建的咸潮短期、中长期预测模型，为珠江三角洲河口地区的压咸补淡时机及措施提供了基础。本项目负责人陈晓宏作为组委会主席主办/承办了 2 次国际水资源学术研讨会，参加19次国内外学术会议，研究团队共有 73 人次参加国内水文水资源学术会议、26 人次参加国际学术会议；申请受理国家发明专利 1项；发表论文 65篇，其中 SCI 论文 35篇；培养博士2名、硕士研究生5 名。