多特性复杂系统GO法建模与分析及其理论应用研究

Multi-characteristics complex systems contain the typical characteristics containing multi-states and topology network, dependencies and the basic properties having non-coherent and repairability. Such factors led to the system reliability modeling and analysis, system reliability optimization allocation and system reliability assessment become much more difficult. This study is to study on the reliability modeling and analysis for multi-characteristics complex systems based on Goal Oriented (GO) methodology. On this base, the multi-objective optimization allocation method and the reliability confidence lower limit assessment method for multi-characteristics complex systems are further researched, respectively. Due to above researches, it can solve the problems including how to map complicated system structure, typical characteristics, dependencies and the basic properties into mathematical model directly, how to balance the system reliability index and system maintenance index in the condition of multi-objective, and how to operate the small-sample reliability assessment for non-coherent complex system precisely, stably and effectively. All in all, this study is part of the important scientific problem in reliability fundamental research for important technique equipment and major facilities. Due to above researches, the theory of GO methodology will be improved greatly, and its theory applications will be widened. Moreover, this study aims to fill the gap in all over the world. It not only provides a new research idea and research methodologies for system reliability modeling and analysis, reliability optimization allocation, and reliability assessment of complex systems; but it also have an important scientific significance and engineering application value.

多状态和拓扑网络是复杂系统的典型特性，相关性是多状态系统可靠性工程的普遍现象，非单调关联和可修复常是其基本特征，它们使得系统可靠性建模与分析、优化分配和评估变得十分困难。本项目针对存在多相关性的有网络拓扑结构的多状态复杂可修系统，系统性地研究面向任务成功性的多特性复杂系统GO法建模与分析技术，并以此为基础，研究多目标条件下的系统多指标权衡分配技术和系统可靠性指标置信下限评估技术，解决直接动态映射系统结构、典型特性、相关性和基本特征的可靠性数学建模问题、系统可靠性和维修性指标多目标权衡优化决策问题，以及实现非单调关联复杂系统稳定、高效的小子样可靠性评估。本项目属于重大技术装备与重大设施可靠性共性基础研究中的重要科学问题，不但极大地改进GO法理论，拓宽其理论应用，填补该领域的空白，而且为复杂系统可靠性建模与分析、优化分配和评估研究提供一种新的研究思路和技术途径，具有重要的科学意义和工程价值。

针对多特性复杂系统，本项目提出了面向任务成功性的多特性复杂系统GO法可靠性建模与分析技术，及其在系统可靠性优化分配和评估中的理论应用，即多目标条件下多特性复杂系统GO法可靠性与维修性指标权衡分配技术和多特性复杂系统GO法可靠性指标置信下限评估技术，是一套较为完整的以多特性复杂系统GO法建模与分析为基础，使系统可靠性建模与分析、优化分配、评估与复杂系统典型特性、相关性、基本特征直接关联的GO法可靠性技术，从而拓展GO法理论的研究领域和应用范围，解决了如何利用GO法建模与分析技术解决直接动态映射复杂系统结构、典型特性、相关性和基本特征的可靠性数学建模问题，解决了如何发挥GO法建模与分析技术在建模与定量运算方面独特的优势，综合考虑复杂系统典型特性、相关性、基本特征并直接映射系统结构，实现将系统可靠性指标和维修性指标分解到设计单元的最优化决策，为设计单元可靠性指标的裕度设计提供科学的数学解释，解决了如何仅利用单元评估数据，发挥GO法建模与分析技术在建模与定量运算方面独特的优势，实现非单调关联系统稳定、高效的小子样系统可靠性评估，并为工程技术人员提供一种较为实用的系统可靠性建模与分析、优化分配和评估方法。