大型热力网可靠性评价与事故工况优化控制的研究

It is of great importance for the layout、design、optical operation and.decreasing accident of heat-supply-network in our country that studying of the reliability on big heat-supply-network and establishing of full evaluating index for reliability..This issue establishes the first accident data-base of big heat-supply-network on the basis of collecting accident, extensively. According to it,.accidental-flow-parameter has been summed up which is proposed for the first time in our country. Because of great sum of sampling data、considering all-sides related factors、advanced data handling method when data were dealt with, The cidental-flow-parameter is more general、accurate and reliable than that in other countries such as Russian.The thermodynamic characteristic data of the anti-accident ability and heat.inertia in typical inhabitable house have been tested. The relation between.stopping heating time and the reduction of indoor temperature and the relation.between cooling-time in heating room and permitted intermittent heating time.were researched at unsteady conditions..All these results above can offer basic data for building rules to distinguish.accident from failure. It is of great importance for us to ascertain reasonable evaluating index of heat-supply network reliability..Mathematical simulated model of hydraulical analysis of large heat-supply network has been studied and put forward, and calculated software has been developed. This software can simulate and analysis the normal and abnormal hydraulical regime、search weak pipe-line and ascertain the status of network and installation when large heat-supply network is on limited condition. This software establish academic base for researching complex heat-supply network.reliability、optimal control of accidental hydraulical regime and development of hydraulical regime calculation software.On the basis of research on accidental-flow-parameter、information entropy theory and new characteristic parameter fitted in our country , we establish the reliability evaluation index of large heat-supply network.国家自然科学基金资助项目结题报告5As a prep-researching issue, the results prove that the way of combination theory with practice is feasible and correct. It establishes the academic and practical foundation for further research on systemic、scientific and accurate reliability evaluating system of large heat-supply network and on optimal control of accidental regime.

用故障流参数概率法和信息熵理论进行大型热力网可靠性评价研究。根据热网事故资料统计出我国尚未建立的事故流参数；以用户平均热惰性建立区分事故与故障的准则；对事故状态的水力工况进行优化控制；据此确定事故工况限额供热及热网可靠性评价指标体系。建立以热网信息熵为指标的间接评价方法。是有重大经济意义的防灾防害的应用基础性研究课题。