基于建筑内残障人员行为特征的疏散建模与诱导策略研究

The disabled with poor activity always become primary victims in unexpected events (such as fires, earthquakes and stampedes) in buildings, due to limitation of their sensory organs, movement function, intelligence, etc. It was found that individuals with disabilities are usually difficult to evacuate to safe places by themselves under emergency situations, and are easy to be obstacles for others, affecting their and others’ escape route selection and evacuation efficiency. The evacuation processes of individuals with disabilities are more complicated and special, because of their own features and interactions with external environment. Thus, this research proposal focuses on emergency evacuation of the disabled in buildings, and aims to study their evacuation dynamics and corresponding guidance strategies. Firstly, psychological and evacuation behavior of the disabled in buildings is revealed through accident analysis, questionnaire surveys, controlled experiments, etc. Then, according to experimental data, a model on evacuation of the disabled based on the multi-grid model and fuzzy inference technique is established. Verification and validation are conducted. Finally, the proposed model is employed to discuss key factors in safe evacuation of the disabled and to explore the effect of different guidance methods on their evacuation processes. Useful guidance strategies for the improvement in evacuation efficiency are proposed and validated in real scenarios. It is hoped that the outcome of this project will be helpful in an in-depth understanding of evacuation characteristics of heterogeneous individuals, and will provide theoretical foundation and technical support for safe crowd management and emergency decision-making.

残障人员由于感觉器官、运动功能、甚至智力等因素限制，活动能力较差，往往成为建筑内火灾、地震、踩踏等事故中最大的受害者。分析表明，建筑内残障人员面对突发威胁时往往难以自行疏散至安全地点，而且很可能阻碍其他疏散人群，影响自身及他人逃生选择及效率，其疏散行为规律也因自身特点以及与外界环境相互作用而更加复杂与特殊。本项目针对建筑内残障人员的疏散问题，首先通过案例分析、问卷调查、可控实验等揭示建筑内残障人员的社会心理行为与疏散运动行为特征；基于实验结果，结合多格子模型建模方法和模糊推理技术构建考虑残障人员行为特征的疏散模型，并校验与验证模型；最后，采用理论模型分析残障人员安全疏散的关键因素，探索不同诱导方法对疏散过程的影响，发展能提高残障人员疏散效率的诱导策略，并结合实际场景进行测试研究。项目成果对深入理解建筑内多样人群的疏散规律有重要意义，可为人群安全管理和应急决策提供理论基础和技术支撑。

当前社会人口老龄化严重，人群中通常包含老人、盲人等，探究包含残障人员的异质人群疏散问题至关重要。本项目首先以正常健康人员为研究对象，定量开展了基于人员生理学特征的人员运动心理行为实验和模型研究，发现人员在看不清的情况下，由于身体接触、恐慌心理，社会排斥力最大。采用可控实验和建模方法分析了不同建筑结构处（建筑通道和房间出口）障碍物布局对行人运动的影响，发现当通道内存在多个障碍物时，纵向间距较大的非平行布局（尤其是凹形布局）更有利于行人运动；房间出口处单长条状和双方形障碍物更有利于人员疏散。探究了建筑楼梯和通道中的群组运动规律，发现群组越大，平均速度越小；相比上楼过程，在下楼过程中，群组越大，其平均迈步时间和步宽越大。上述研究结果为开展建筑内残障人员疏散运动规律相关研究提供对比数据和参考。. 接着，以包含残障人员的异质人群为研究对象，开展了人员在一个超市中两种视野情况下（视野良好和视野受限）的疏散实验与建模研究，发现两种视野下人员均倾向于选择最近出口。研究了建筑通道中包含残障人员的人群运动规律，发现行人通过通道的平均速度同残障人员比例呈负相关关系，且双向流中主要流行人平均速度显著大于次要流行人平均速度；帮助行为对异质人群通行效率具有促进作用，残障人员对通行效率具有负面影响，在方向分流比为0.5时行人的通行效率达到最大值；异质人群即使在较低密度下，产生拥堵的可能性也较高。探究了房间中包含残障人员的混合人群疏散机理，通过分析最近邻指数发现，疏散初始阶段人员均近似符合随机分布，随后行人均进入簇拥状态；并且当坐轮椅者混合比为10%时，最近邻指数变化缓慢，即疏散过程受到较大的影响。本项目成果推动了突发事件下残障人员应急疏散理论和方法研究，为制定合理高效的疏散与疏导策略提供理论基础和技术支持。