印太暖池短期热事件的多尺度海气相互作用及其气候影响

The Indo-Pacific warm pool is characterized by strong air-sea interactions at a wide range of space-time scales, which plays a crucial role in driving the Earth’s climate system. It is recognized that multiscale air-sea interactions are very active at the upper range of sea surface temperature (SST) that strongly couples with atmospheric convection. Further understanding of the air-sea interactions in the very high-SST phenomena including their observed features, physical processes, and climate impacts is essential for the improved prediction of weather and climate. In this study, we propose to investigate the multiscale air-sea interactions during short-term large-scale high SST events using an excellent set of data including satellite, reanalysis, mooring, etc. First, observation analyses and climate diagnoses are performed to examine the multiscale characteristics of ocean-atmosphere systems and their relationship with the tropical waves, intraseasonal oscillations, and El Nino events. Then, we further investigate the underlying physics of multiscale air-sea interactions including the atmospheric remote forcings for the formation of oceanic hot event, the feedback of hot event to the development of organized convection, and the regulating role of hot event in multiscale weather/climate variations. With a quantified importance of the air-sea interactions, this research project is warranted to shed light on the seamless prediction of weather and climate.

印太暖池的海气相互作用是驱动气候系统的重要过程。把握海气相互作用的多尺度特征、机制和影响，对提升短期气候预测水平具有重大科学意义。海气相互作用在高海温期间尤为剧烈，热带海洋不仅对大气强迫做出显著响应，还能反馈调节大气条件而影响热带对流。本项目从短期热事件的独特角度出发，利用海洋和大气观测资料，结合气候统计、能量平衡、波谱分析、数值模拟等手段，深入探讨海洋和大气系统的活动特征、相互作用机制及其对短期气候的影响，从而提高对多尺度天气气候演变的认识与预测。研究方案按“现象-机制-预测”路线展开，主要内容包括：1) 短期热事件期间上层海洋和大气对流的多尺度特征及其与热带波动、季节内振荡、ENSO等的联系；2)多尺度海气相互作用的物理机制：热事件演变对多尺度天气气候系统的贡献效率。