面向售电侧开放的主动配电网供电能力多时间尺度建模及优化决策研究

The calculation and assessment of power supply capacity of distribution network have encountered dual challenges of the propelling of electricity market structural reform and the gradual forming of active distribution network: Electricity market with open retail side requires real-time information publication of power supply capacity of distribution network; The uncertainties and initiative of active distribution network have increased the difficulty of the calculation and assessment of power supply capacity. This project balances the impacts of the uncertainties and initiative, and proposes the construction of a multi-time scale calculation and assessment and optimized decision system of power supply capacity of active distribution network, based on the analysis of power supply capacity information required by electricity market of each time scale one by one and the influences of all kinds of trades on power supply capacity: The adequacy of power supply capacity in mid-long term is evaluated based on hybrid clustering and importance sampling method, aiming to conduct mid-long term market transaction; By means of balancing the impacts of uncertainties and initiative on the basis of scenario analysis and risk assessment theory, the risk decision of power supply capacity is carried out, which is the guidance of day-ahead market transaction. Take the benefits of all the market participants into account and employ information gap decision theory as well as Nash-Stackelberg-Nash game theory to optimize the ultra short-term power supply capacity of distribution network, in order to provide guidelines for real-time market transaction. The implementation of this project is of vital significance in providing theoretical reference and technical support to the construction of electricity market and the establishment of electric power trade organization.

配电网供电能力的计算评估面临着深化电力市场体制改革和主动配电网逐步形成带来的双重挑战：售电侧开放的电力市场提出了实时发布配电网供电能力信息的需求；而主动配电网中分布式能源资源的不确定性和主动性增加了供电能力计算评估的难度。本项目在逐一分析各时间尺度电力市场对供电能力的信息需求及交易成交对供电能力影响的基础上，均衡不确定性和主动性，建立主动配电网供电能力的多时间尺度计算评估及优化决策体系：基于混合聚类和重要抽样法，评估中长期供电能力的充裕度，用于指导中长期市场交易；基于场景分析法和风险评估理论，均衡不确定和主动性的影响对短期供电能力进行风险决策，用于指导日前市场交易；基于信息间隙决策理论和Nash-Stackelberg-Nash博弈，兼顾市场各参与方利益，优化超短期供电能力，用于指导实时市场交易。本项目的实施将为电力市场建设及电力交易机构的组建提供重要的理论基础和技术支持。

在过去三年的时间内，本课题组对承担的课题项目进行了深入研究，完成了任务书的相关研究工作。取得的成果如下：.1.针对主动配电网中长期供电能力评估问题，提出了一种快速计算和评估中长期配电网供电能力的方法。通过分别对分布式电源、网络故障和负荷进行抽样，并定义了一系列供电能力评估指标，从数值大小、波动情况、充裕情况、接入分布式电源的贡献程度等多个角度对供电能力进行评价，为电网规划及运行提供了量化的参考依据。算例结果表明，所提方法能够较好的模拟实际配电网运行状况，提高了中长期供电能力评估的速度；评估指标的提出既能对中长期供电能力进行评估，又能指导主动配电网的优化规划与优化运行。.2.针对主动配电网短期供电能力评估问题，从不确定性因素对短期供电能力的影响入手，在考虑ADN中“元”出力的不确定性的基础上，计及配电网络中可能发生的故障，基于故障排序法形成网络故障的多场景模型。将“元”的多场景与网络故障多场景相结合，得到短期供电能力的多场景概率评估模型。为了对该概率评估模型进行量化描述，从数值大小、波动情况、充裕情况、接入DER的贡献程度等多个角度提出一系列短期供电能力评价指标。算例验证结果表明，含评价指标的短期供电能力多场景概率评估结果对指导ADN的优化运行，发掘配电网的供电能力，保障日前市场交易具有重要的指导作用。.3.针对主动配电网超短期供电能力评估问题，将IGDT理论引入到ADN供电能力快速评估方面，用以确定ADN最大供电能力与不可控DER出力的对应关系。首先建立了基于相似日选择考虑误差修正的DER出力滚动预测模型，可以求出不可控DER出力预测值，通过重复潮流法计算出对应的ADN供电能力预测值；然后建立基于IGDT的ADN供电能力快速评估计算模型，求出与供电能力范围相对应的不可控DER出力范围，并进行概率计算；算例验证表明所提方法可以较为准确地评估出短期不可控DER出力波动对ADN最大供电能力的影响。