城市暴雨灾害链动态脆弱性的计算方法研究

With the increasing frequency and deteriorative influence of storm-induced hazard chain in city-region, study on storm-induced hazard chain and its vulnerability has raised widespread concern of different disciplines, including geography, hydrology, management science, etc. Considering the scientific issues in hazard vulnerability calculation methods including low spatio-temporal scale and ignoring dynamic characteristics, it is necessary to break the vulnerability scope of sole hazard such as waterlogging, flood, landslide, and debris flow. Furthermore, research on spatio-temporal pattern expression, comprehensive modeling, and dynamic simulations of storm-induced hazard chain and its vulnerability should be carried out to uncover the mechanism, variation, and evolution of storm-induced hazard chain. For these reasons, this project proposed a spatio-temporal modeling method for vulnerability assessment of storm-induced hazard chain in city-region with the spatio-temporal variations of hazard chain and hazard-bearing body consideration. Meanwhile, this project designed a net structure for storm-induced hazard chain, and built an index model though spatialization method. Based on this, this study implemented the dynamic simulation and meticulous calculation of dynamic vulnerability of storm-induced hazard chain that are integrated with the multi-hazard modeling framework and agent-based model. The outcomes will provide theoretical and methodological support for risk assessment and hazard warning of storm-induced hazard chain, and enhance resilience of city in response to hazard chain. Moreover, the project enrich the theory and method of existing research on city hazard chain vulnerability, and promote the development of GIS in geoanalysis and simulation of geographic process.

随着城市暴雨链式自然灾害发生频率和危害程度的不断加剧，暴雨灾害链及其脆弱性研究已成为管理科学、地理学和水文学等不同学科普遍关注的热点研究领域。面向当前灾害脆弱性计算方法时空尺度低以及缺乏动态性特征等科学问题，突破内涝、洪水、滑坡、泥石流等单一灾害脆弱性研究范畴，开展暴雨灾害链及其动态脆弱性时空表达、综合建模和动态模拟的研究，以揭示暴雨链式灾害的驱动机理、演变模式及时空变化规律。项目提出了顾及灾害链及承灾体时空变化特征的城市暴雨灾害链动态脆弱性时空表达方法，设计了暴雨灾害链网络结构，构建了动态脆弱性的指标模型及空间化方法，并基于多灾害集成建模框架与智能体模型，实现城市暴雨灾害链动态脆弱性的精细化计算与动态模拟。项目成果将为暴雨灾害链风险评估与预警提供理论与方法支撑，丰富现有城市灾害脆弱性的研究内涵与技术体系，提高城市应对链式灾害的弹性能力，推动GIS在地理分析与地理过程模拟研究方向上的发展。

随着城市暴雨链式自然灾害发生频率和危害程度的不断加剧，暴雨灾害链及其脆弱性研究已经成为城市防灾减灾以及灾害风险管理工作中的重要内容。然而灾害脆弱性计算方法仍存在时空尺度低、无法体现灾害要素与承灾体要素的动态特征、缺乏针对链式结构灾害的量化模型等问题。.本项目围绕城市暴雨链式灾害，在充分借鉴前人研究成果的基础上，以暴雨观测与模拟、暴雨型灾害综合建模、暴雨灾害链动态脆弱性认知与计算为研究主线，取得如下进展：1）分析了数值天气预报模式WRF与天气雷达降雨估算的精度与适用性，提出了雷达观测的空中降雨向地表转换的映射方法，分析了WRF模式降雨估算的微物理参数不确定性，为城市暴雨过程模拟奠定了基础；2）结合水文模型模拟与遥感观测数据，对当前暴雨型地质与水文灾害模拟模型进行了改进与优化，提出了融合遥感观测数据的城市暴雨型灾害的综合建模方法，实现了滑坡、洪水、内涝等多灾害过程的耦合模拟；3）提出了暴雨灾害链的知识图谱表达与事件自动提取方法，设计了顾及城市下垫面的地表空间自适应离散单元划分方法，实现了城市暴雨灾害链动态脆弱性内涵、构成及特征的认知与表达；4）提出了基于多智能体模型的承灾体时空模拟方法，研发了耦合暴雨型灾害与人类行为过程的城市系统模型：HazardCM，实现了面向不同情景的城市暴雨灾害链动态脆弱性的精细化计算。.在课题研究过程中，已发表期刊论文21篇，其中SCI检索论文18篇，EI检索论文2篇；获国家授权发明专利3项；项目负责人和主要参与人赴英国布里斯托大学、卡迪夫大学等单位开展了多次学术交流活动；参加国内外会议20余次，发表会议摘要论文4篇。