基于结构变化的人民币实际汇率长期变动趋势研究

Among all the puzzling facts in Chinese economy, the long-run trend of real exchange rate (RER) might receive the most attentions and perhaps is also most controversial in both academia and policy circle. There is no apparent trend of appreciation of RER since 1990, even though Chinese economy succeeds in growing very rapidly in this period. This seems to be puzzling and inconsistent with standard theories, which suggest a long-run trend of real appreciation of its currency for a fast-growing economy (e.g., the Balassa-Samuelson theory). Many have argued that the RER in China is depressed by government's intervention of exchange rate policies to promote the exports. Furthermore, they argue that China should be responsible for the huge global imbalance surged in recent years...The standard theories that above arguments are based on usually assume a stable composition of tradable and non-tradable sectors for an economy. Such assumption, however, is clearly not applicable to a large emerging market economy like China, who is still experiencing the transitions and far from its steady state. To account for the dynamics of the RER in China, we need to extend the standard framework by incorporating some new features of the economy during transitions...In this project, firstly I document several stylized facts for Chinese economy during the economic transition. I then extend the standard open-macro model by incorporating features of Chinese Economy: structural change and labor surplus etc. In particular, the tradable sectors are modelled with both Heckscher–Ohlin and Eaton-Kortum structure. The structural change is thus an endogenous process in our dynamic general equilibrium framework. Labor surplus is the key feature to break down the wage linkage that the classic Balassa-Samuelson effect relies on. Therefore, in our model with new features, the RER appreciation is not necessarily an inevitable result of technology improvement of a growing economy. The theoretical part of my project aims at developing a new theory of long-term RER level for emerging economies like China. I will also conduct quantitative analysis using Chinese data to examine how well the model does quantitatively in explaining Chinese RER and other stylized facts during economic transition. Policy implications and suggestions will also be discussed in the project.

人民币汇率一直是国内外各界关注的焦点问题。从数据上看，人民币实际汇率的演变历程与巴萨效应并不相符，这也为欧美“人民币人为低估”的指责提供了基础。我们认为，由于中国经济仍处于结构转型阶段，巴萨效应所基于的假设并不成立，简单地套用巴萨效应来分析人民币实际汇率的变动趋势并不可取。必须认识到结构变化对于实际汇率均衡水平不容忽视的影响。具体地，本项目以中国经济为基准，通过总结并引入中国经济结构变化的特征事实，对传统实际汇率模型加以拓展，搭建一个全面的内生性结构变化和实际汇率的动态一般均衡模型，系统地研究随着经济的发展，结构变化、实际汇率水平、以及国际收支失衡之间的相互影响机制。项目的研究具有重要的现实意义，可为汇率政策与外贸政策的制定提供理论基础和合理性建议。值得注意的是，我们的研究虽基于中国经济，但研究方法上具有一般性。因此，项目的研究成果同样适用于具有类似于中国经济发展特征的其他发展中经济体。

加入WTO以后，中国经济在保持着高速增长的同时也加快了步入世界经济的步伐。这势必会对世界经济产生重要影响。本课题组的研究目标是着眼于中国经济，试图讲好中国故事，从实证性和规范性角度入手，探求开放经济环境下中国经济结构转型对宏观经济和政策的影响。课题的最重要研究成果就在于建立起了一个统一的研究框架，将中国特有的结构转型特征如金融抑制、二元经济体经济以及资源错配等特征融入开放经济的宏观背景。现有文献中还没有一个统一的框架来分析结构转型阶段的大型开放经济。因而本课题的研究具有重要的学术意义，填补了学术文献的空白。此外，在数据方面，课题组通过对宏观层面和企业层面数据的整理以及实证分析，从数据中总结近年我国经济发展的关键特征，确立相关的特征事实，为中国经济的研究建立一个可靠的实证基础。具体地，课题组从中国的实际汇率和国际资本流动、国际产业结构的非对称性与全球贸易失衡、结构转型和工资技能溢价、货币政策规则、以及资源错配的测算和分析等五个方向来研究结构转型对中国经济的影响。课题组的研究成果加深了我们对于结构转型对中国经济所产生影响的理解，具有较强现实意义。值得注意的是，本课题所建立的研究框架具有很好的拓展性，研究结果也不仅局限于中国经济。事实上，我们的研究方法和研究结论可以适用于其他具有类似的经济发展阶段的发展中国家。项目的研究成果产生了丰富的学术论文，得到了学术界积极的正面反馈，并产生了高质量的中英文发表。此外，课题的研究成果也在政策性研讨会进行了宣传和推广，产生了较好的社会影响。