气候变化下青藏高原典型湖泊水量平衡遥感水文模拟与预测

Climate changes are expected to seriously affect the water resources of the Tibetan Plateau. Inland lakes that are widely distributed on the Tibetan Plateau have minimum impact of human activities and are an important component of the water supply in China. The enlargement and shrinkage of inland lakes reflect the changes in water and heat balance, which is a sensitive indicator of the climate change. Lake water storage variation provides information about temperature, rainfall, humidity and solar radiation, while regional water storage variations reflect the climate change in a larger scale Tibetan Plateau.It is significant to study of the lake water balance variation and the response to the climate change base on the remote sensing hydrological model. It will help to reveal the water cycle process in rarely arrived area, monitor the water resource variation, study the impact of climate change, and provide basis for the ecological protection. The objectives of this project are: (1) to reconstruct the time seriesof water level and water storage of lakes for the last 40 years in differentclimate zone of the Tibet Plateau; (2) to develop a hydrological model based onhigh resolution remote sensed data and ground observations; (3) to assess theimpacts of climate change on water budget using the hydrological model developed.The research is expected to be helpful in understanding cycle of the Plateauunder climate change, and could be great support for adaptive water resourcesmanagement in the Tibet Plateau.

气候变化深刻影响着青藏高原的水资源状况。湖泊是青藏高原最重要的地表水体赋存形态。青藏高原上的湖泊多为内陆湖，受人类活动影响极小，对气候变化具有敏感的响应。湖泊水量的变化记录了大量的降水、蒸发和湿度等气候变化的信息。基于遥感水文模型，模拟气候变化背景下青藏高原地区湖泊水量平衡的动态响应过程，有助于理解青藏高原水文资料缺乏地区水循环过程，揭示高原水资源的动态变化及其对气候变化的响应特征，为生态屏障的保护提供科学依据。项目将基于卫星遥感数据和地面实测资料构建的高时空分辨率地表因子数据集，应用遥感水文模型，重建近40年来青藏高原不同区域湖泊水位、水量序列，动态监测青藏高原典型湖泊的水量平衡过程，揭示湖泊水量平衡对气候变化的响应机理。

项目紧密围绕青藏高原典型湖泊的水量平衡，在青藏高原典型湖泊关键环境参数的多源遥感识别与反演、青藏高原典型湖泊水量平衡的遥感水文模拟以及青藏高原典型湖泊水量平衡对气候变化的响应研究等方面取得了显著进展。项目充分利用多源遥感数据（遥感图像和产品、高度计数据等），构建了适合研究区的遥感水文模型，模拟了典型湖泊近40 年湖泊水量平衡的变化及其未来情景，揭示了高原不同气候区湖泊水量平衡对气候变化的响应特征，这将为气候变化背景下青藏高原水资源的合理评价、开发、利用和规划提供可靠的科学数据和理论依据。项目资助已发表学术论文5篇，在审论文3篇，获得授权专利1项。项目执行期间，项目负责人及参加人员多次参加国内外学术会议，与同行交流并介绍了本项目取得的相关成果。