西辽河流域水土资源平衡与农产品流通互动关系研究

Both fully understanding of the natural and social system's condition and its change process, and discussion of the feedback relationships between human and environment system, have become a popular study field of global change and sustainable development. West Liao River Basin locates in the western margin of Northeast Plain, one of the major grain producing areas of China. West Liao River Basin also locates in the eastern margin of northern China agro-pastoral Ecotone. It is an ecologically fragile and environmentally sensitive area. In last 50 years, a significant warming trend was showed and droughts took place frequently in this region. As the population increased, large-scale resources exploration were significantly enhanced. Under the combined effect of climate change and human activities, problems of watershed ecosystem damage, land desertification and vegetation degradation went worse each day. Are resources of this region enough for satisfying the demand of future commodity grain base development? How does agriculture products flow affect the resources of this region? These scientific questions must be answered urgently. .The research of the situation of food security and sustainable agricultural development in West Liao River Basin has been taken. The systematical simulations and analysis of relationships between land-water resources utilization and agricultural products flow in last 30 years have been performed in this project. By deploying GIS technology, this project firstly establishes series models of balance between land use and water resources, and then investigates land-water resources balance patterns and trends from 1981 to 2010 in the study area. secondly, With balance sheets, this project quantitatively evaluates spatial and temporal variations and geographical features of agricultural production, consumption and circulation in West Liao River Basin; On these basis, this project attempts to investigate the interactive mechanism between land-water resources use and agricultural products flow, quantitatively analyses the impact of land-water resources use on agricultural products flow, and simulate the impact of agricultural production, consumption and circulation on land-water resources utilization. The purpose of this project is to provide a scientific basis for regional utilization of water and land resources, and sustainable agricultural development.

从系统角度出发，定量甄别水土资源利用与农产品流通的反馈关系和联动效应，对全面揭示区域农产品生产、消费和流通与水土资源利用变化过程，充分认识人类与自然系统的耦合关系，促进区域资源环境安全与可持续发展具有重要的科学价值和现实意义。项目以西辽河流域为例，以区域内水土资源利用和农产品生产、区域间农产品流通和水土资源平衡效应为研究内容，科学认识1980-2010年西辽河流域水土资源平衡格局与变化趋势；定量评价1980-2010年西辽河流域农产品生产、消费和流通的地域特征与时空规律；在此基础上，研究并揭示区域水土资源利用与农产品流通的互联关系与互动机理，定量分析与模拟西辽河流域水土资源利用变化对农产品生产、消费与流通的影响，以及农产品生产、消费与流通的水土资源平衡效应。研究成果将为流域水土资源合理利用、农业生产优化布局，以及实现农业可持续发展提供科学依据和决策支持。

本研究从系统角度出发，综合运用遥感、地理信息系统和问卷调查等技术手段，建立水分平衡模型，定量揭示了西辽河流域水分平衡格局的基本特征与规律性；采用平衡表方法，建立农产品平衡表，细致刻画了农户、县域到流域多个尺度近10年农产品生产、消费与流通的格局；在此基础上，研究并揭示了西辽河流域水土资源利用的农产品流通互动关系。研究表明：西辽河流域主要作物全生育期水分平衡总体均呈现亏缺特征，亏水量由流域西部、南部和东北部向中部递增。2000-2010年，西辽河流域农产品生产规模逐渐扩大，以饲料消费为主的消费数量整体增长，农产品流通规模呈稳定增长趋势。水资源对西辽河流域农产品约束作用日趋增强，农产品流通的水资源压力凸显，农、牧户家庭农产品流通的水资源效应差异显著。