小地老虎迁飞行为分析及三维轨迹建模

The black cutworm Agrotis ipsilon (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), a specific migratory species, is one of the most severe crop pest in China. Our previous radar observations indicate that this species possess complicated migration behavior, but the quantitative description and systematic analysis on the migration process of A. ipsilon in high altitude remains insufficient. In the present study, the database of meteorological factors and flight behavior of A. ipsilon will be constructed by using the fundamental principles of behavioral ecology, radar entomology and migration entomology. Based on these database, the correlations of flight behavior and migration process of this species with the environmental factors will be analyzed. A 3-d trajectory numerical modeling platform will be founded based on the procedure system of Weather Research Forecast (WRF) and the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trejectory (Hysplit_4), and then the accuracy of the migration trajectory will be verified by using the method of hydrogen isotope analysis and pollen morphology identification. Findings from this study will improve our knowledge on the migration behavior of A. ipsilon, which will help us to develop more effective forecasting systems and design of sound management strategies against this pest species.

小地老虎是典型的专性迁飞昆虫，也是我国农业生产上的重要害虫。我们的雷达监测结果发现，小地老虎过境虫群具有复杂的生物学行为，但目前对其空中迁飞过程尚缺乏定量化描述和系统分析。本项目拟综合利用行为学、雷达昆虫学和迁飞昆虫学的原理和方法，通过构建小地老虎高空飞行参数和气象要素数据库，对该虫的迁飞过程、高空飞行行为及主要影响因子进行相关性分析，建立基于WRF和Hysplit_4的三维轨迹数值建模平台，并通过稳定氢同位素测量及花粉形态鉴别对轨迹模拟结果进行验证，为阐明小地老虎的季节性迁飞规律、提高迁飞性害虫的监测预警能力提供科学依据。

远距离迁飞行为是害虫突然暴发和植物病害大流行的重要原因。小地老虎是我国重要的迁飞性害虫，而渤海海峡是其南北往复迁飞的重要通道。本项目在渤海海峡中心区域海岛设立监测点，综合运用昆虫雷达监测、高空测报灯诱、稳定同位素宗踪、轨迹模拟等技术和方法，对小地老虎跨海迁飞行为和轨迹进行了分析：明确了小地老虎跨海迁飞的年际性和季节性变化规律，以及风温背景场对其迁飞行为的影响。将其高空行为学参数引入轨迹预测模型，突破了传统迁飞路线预测的技术瓶颈，建立了较为精准的“虫源地”-“监测点”-“迁入地”轨迹分析方法，以及基于氢同位素和花粉鉴定的轨迹示踪技术，提高了对小地老虎监测预警的实效性和精准度，为实现该虫的“察打一体化”防控和“源头”治理提供了理论依据和技术支撑。