海气相互作用过程的描述方法及其在台风浪与风暴潮模拟中的应用

Storm waves and surges generated by tropical cyclones are disastrous to coastal areas. They may destroy coastal structures and flood coastal cities, leading to severe human and economic losses. An accurate forecast of storm waves and surges is the goal that has long been strived for by scientists and engineers. The estimation of the momentum exchange at the air-sea interface is considered as the key factor for the forecast. However, the air-sea momentum exchanges under the high wind conditions and in the shallow water seas are still not well understood. This project aims to establish an evolution method for the wind stress under typhoon conditions, fully considering the multiple physical processes, such as the wave-induced momentum flux and the interaction between the airflow and the suspended sea spray. The method will be embedded in the wave-current coupled model to improve the forecast accuracy of storm waves and surge. The coupled model is validated and applied to the simulation of storm waves and surges under the several major typhoons in history, and the characteristics of storm waves and surges will be discussed. Effects of the global climate change on the disastrous storm waves and surges along the coast of China will also be investigated. The developed method for the air-sea momentum exchange and the proposed wind-stress/wave/surge coupled model are believed to be very helpful to the prediction of storm waves and surges.

台风浪与风暴潮是我国沿海地区频发的严重自然灾害，其准确高效的预报预警对于保护沿岸地区人民生命财产安全具有重要意义。海气动量交换的准确模化是成功预报台风浪与风暴潮的前提和关键，但当前对高风速及浅水复杂海况条件下海气动量交换的机制与变化规律仍没有清晰的认识。本项目基于对海气界面边界层的理论分析提出一套充分考虑海气相互作用、适用于台风高风速情形的风应力计算方法，并将其嵌入风暴潮与波浪模式，构建一套能够反映风暴增水、天文潮、波浪等多因子相互作用的风应力—风暴潮—波浪耦合数值模型。项目将应用耦合模型研究超强台风作用下台风浪与风暴增水的规律，讨论全球气候变化背景下我国沿海地区台风浪与风暴增水规律的变化。本项目提出的台风过程中海气动量交换的模化方法与风应力—风暴潮—波浪耦合数值模型将进一步提高台风浪与风暴潮数值模拟精度，对台风浪与风暴潮的预报预警及沿海地区防灾减灾工作具有重要意义。

台风浪与风暴潮是我国沿海地区频发的严重自然灾害，其准确高效的预报预警对于保护沿岸地区人民生命财产安全具有重要意义。本项目着眼于风暴潮和台风浪的生成发展过程的大气与海洋之间的动量传输这一关键环节，提出了一套充分考虑海气相互作用、适用于台风高风速情形的海气动量传输计算方法，构建了一套能够反映风暴增水、天文潮、波浪等多因子相互作用的风应力—风暴潮—波浪耦合数值模型，利用该模型研究了超强台风作用下台风浪与风暴增水的规律。考虑到气候变化对台风活动的时空特征产生显著影响，本项目研究了气候变化对全球和区域尺度台风生成和运动时空特征的影响规律，发展了一套兼具准确性和实用性的台风路径模型，讨论了全球气候变化背景下我国沿海地区台风浪与风暴增水规律的变化。本项目研究工作对台风浪与风暴潮的预报预警及沿海地区防灾减灾工作具有重要意义。在项目执行期间，共完成高水平SCI论文15篇(含4篇审稿中)，中文核心论文1篇、出版专著1本、获得计算机软件著作权4项，国际专利1项。培养了博士后6名，博士研究生16名，硕士研究生2名，其中2位博士后获国家自然科学基金青年项目资助。