日冕物质抛射的冰激凌-锥模型在空间天气预报中的应用

Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)'s properties are important to not only the physical scene itself but spaceweather prediction. Several models(such as cone model, GCS model, and so on) have been raised to get rid of the projection effects within the properties observated by spacecraft. According to SOHO/ LASCO observations, we obtain the 'real' 3D parameters of all the FFHCMEs (front-side full halo Coronal Mass Ejections) within the 24th solar cycle by the ice-cream cone model. Considering that the method to obtain 3D parameters from the CME observations by multi-satellite and multi-angle has higher accuracy, we use the GCS model to obtain the real propagation parameters of these CMEs in 3D space and compare the results with which by ice-cream cone model. Then we could discuss the reliability of the ice-cream cone model. And for FFHCMEs during cycle 23 and 24，Using the ice-cream cone model and the kinematic model of CMEs, the Sun-Earth propagation time of CMEs could be estiblished and compared with observations. The disturbance parameters of the CMEs are derived from the ice-cream cone model. Then these parameters together with the solar surface magnetic field observtions are used to drive the model to predict the propagations of the CMEs.This project will provide necessary reference for establishing a complete automated space weather prediction model .

日冕物质抛射（CME）的运动学特性对理解其本身物理特性及空间天气预报非常重要。考虑到投影效应，已有各种投影修正模型（锥模型、GCS模型等）得到日冕物质抛射的三维运动学参数。本课题利用SOHO/LASCO观测对第24太阳周中面向地球的全晕状CME采用冰淇凌-锥模型反演其三维参数，并与广为接受的GCS模型方法（利用STEREO双星结合SOHO/LASCO的观测资料）反演的结果进行对比，研究冰淇凌-锥模型反演CME参数的可靠性。此外对第23、24太阳周的晕状CME采用冰激凌-锥模型结合HAF三维运动学模型方法预报扰动到达地球时间，并分析该方法的优劣。本项目的研究成果是构建完整的自动空间天气预报模式必要的基础工作。

本课题主要通过研究日冕物质抛射（CME）的运动学特性，进一步分析日冕物质本身的物理特性。通过冰激凌-锥模型结合HAF三维运动学模型方法的空间天气预报模式对大量CME事件观测数据的分析研究，并与其它模式方法反演的结果进行对比，研究冰淇凌-锥模型反演CME参数的可靠性，以及对方法本身提出进一步改进。同时在课题支撑下对相关的太阳活动观测以及局地太阳风观测的一些物理现象进行了分析研究。以上研究成果是构建和完整自动空间天气预报模式必要的基础工作。本实验室的空间天气预报模式已正式运行，同时冰激凌-锥模型结合HAF三维运动学模型方法在其它科研机构的空间天气预报活动中得到了应用。