大型流域水库群多目标调度风险管理理论和应用研究

For reservoirs operation system of the Yangtze River basin or a certain large-scale river basin, research is focused on the following points: interaction and transformation mechanism among various risk factors, multual relationships among different types of risks, fast estimation method of multi-risk variables joint distribution, risk management model and hierarchical parallel algorithm of multi-objective operation, benefit and risk evaluation method of reservoirs water level dynamic control in flood season, additional risk loss function deriving, determination of risk critical value, comprehensive risk index system and assessment method, multi-objective risk decision-making theory and method, multi-dimentional curved surface uniformitarianism rate method, decision supporting system of multi-objective operation risk management. It is planned to propose scientific method of reservoirs multi-objective operation risk management suitable for China, make certain theoriotical breakthrough in quantitative description of multiple risk variables joint distribution, solution to multi-objective operation risk model and decision-making method; establish fundamental theory and method framework for multi-objective operation risk management of large-scale river basin. Through practice validation, this research will achieve optimal coordination and sustainable development of engineering technology, socio-economy and ecological environment, provide technical support for flood control decision and efficient usage of water resources of river basin in a changing environment, thus undoubtedly has important scientific significance and broad application prospects.

针对长江流域或某大型流域水库群调度系统，重点研究各类风险因子相互影响及转化机理、不同类型风险间相互关系、多风险变量联合分布快速估计方法、多目标调度风险管理模型及分层并行算法、水库群汛期运行水位动态控制效益与风险分析方法、附加风险损失函数推求、风险临界值确定、综合风险评价指标体系及方法、多目标风险决策理论与方法及多维曲面均变率法、多目标调度风险管理决策支持系统等。提出适合我国国情的水库群多目标调度风险管理的科学方法，在多风险变量联合分布定量描述、多目标调度风险模型求解方法、多目标决策方法等理论上有所突破，创建大型流域水库群多目标调度风险管理的基本理论与方法体系，并应用于实践验证，实现工程技术与社会经济、生态环境系统的最佳协调与可持续发展，为变化环境下流域防洪决策及水资源高效利用提供技术支撑，无疑具有重大的科学意义和广阔的应用前景。

针对长江等大型流域水库群调度系统，重点研究探讨了水文、水力、人为等各类风险因子相互影响及关系、多风险变量联合分布快速估计方法、多目标调度风险管理模型及分层并行算法、水库群汛期运行水位动态控制效益与风险分析方法、附加风险损失函数推求、风险临界值确定、综合风险评价指标体系及方法、多目标风险决策理论与方法及多维曲面均变率法、多目标调度风险管理决策支持系统等。提出了适合我国国情的水库群多目标调度风险管理的科学方法，在多风险变量联合分布定量描述（如：水库下游防洪区多维风险估计模型、基于最大熵原理的径流预报误差分布模型，等）、多目标调度风险模型求解方法（如：多层嵌套结构的动态规划算法、基于泛函思想的动态规划算法、管道并行动态规划算法、鲶鱼效应多目标粒子群算法、免疫蛙跳算法、自组织映射遗传算法、三阶段逐步优化算法，等）、多目标决策方法（如：水库多目标调度风险决策技术、基于机会约束的随机多目标决策模型，多维曲面均变率法等）等理论上取得了进展，创建了大型流域水库群多目标调度风险管理的基本理论与方法体系，并应用于实践，验证了理论及方法的可行性与有效性，实现了工程技术与社会经济、生态环境系统的最佳协调与可持续发展，为变化环境下流域防洪决策及水资源高效利用提供了技术支撑，无疑具有重大的科学意义和广阔的应用前景。