亚洲中部干旱区典型湖盆盐尘暴灾害的时空过程及其机理研究

Central Asia is one of the regions with a high frequency of saline dust storms. It is characterized by the presence of the vast areas of dry lakebed and solonchak deserts. Much of the dust has a high salt concentration. The salty dust affects not only climate and landscape, but also the health and economic activity of the population. The salt dust storms in arid land of Central Asia are sensitive response to regional climate and environmental change. Research on its temporal and spatial process and occurrence mechanism under the influence of climate change and human activities is of significance to have a profound understanding of the evolution of resources and environment in arid areas. The Aral Sea, Balkhash Lake, Ebinur Lake and other typical salt sources for dust storms are selected as the study areas to clarify the mechanism of salt dust storms, and reveal the effects of typical surface factors on salt dust storm disasters in Central Asian arid Lake region through field monitoring. Spatial and temporal characteristics of Central Asian salt dust storm disasters in nearly half a century will also be explored by integrating field monitoring data and historical data of the selected sites. Finally, attentions are paid to analyze the trends of salt dust storm disaster in the future climate and cultural context through the analysis of relationships between salt dust storm in response to climate change and human activities in arid zone of Central Asia. The research results will not only provide risk assessment of salt dust storms and forecast of these disasters in Central Asia, but also strengthen the monitoring and early warning capabilities to deal with the salt dust storm disasters affected by climate change and human activities, and at the same time provide decision-making to improve ecosystem management level.

亚洲中部干旱区盐尘暴是对气候与区域环境变化的敏感响应。开展亚洲中部干旱区气候变化和人类活动影响下盐尘暴时空过程及发生机理研究，对深刻认识干旱区资源环境演变具有重要意义。通过与中亚相关研究单位的科研协作，在科技部国际合作项目支持下建立的中亚野外生态监测站基础上，选择咸海、巴尔喀什湖及艾比湖等典型盐尘暴发生源地为研究区，项目将①进行野外实地监测，阐明盐尘暴发生机理，揭示亚洲中部干旱区典型湖区下垫面因素对盐尘暴发生的影响；②整合野外监测和历史资料，分析近半个世纪亚洲中部盐尘暴灾害的时空特征；③通过研究亚洲中部干旱区干涸湖底盐尘暴发生对气候变化和人类活动的响应关系，剖析亚洲中部干旱区盐尘暴在未来气候和人文情境下的发展趋势。项目研究成果将为亚洲中部干旱区盐尘暴灾害的风险评估及预测提供重要科学依据，同时也为加强应对气候变化和人类活动影响下盐尘暴灾害的监测和预警能力，提高生态系统管理水平提供决策参考。

本项目针对干旱区所特有的盐/沙尘暴灾害现象，聚焦丝绸之路经济带的核心区域——中亚干旱区，通过与中亚相关研究单位的科研协作，以咸海和艾比湖两个典型盐/沙尘暴发生源地为重点研究区，开展亚洲中部干旱区气候变化和人类活动影响下盐尘暴时空过程及发生机理研究。首先整合野外监测数据和历史资料，分析了近50年来咸海地区盐/沙尘暴灾害的时空特征；并借助HYSPLIT模式模拟盐/沙尘传输路径和扩散影响范围；同时通过研究干涸湖底盐/沙尘暴发生对气候变化和人类活动的响应关系，剖析亚洲中部干旱区盐/沙尘暴在未来气候和人文情境下的发展趋势。最后基于多元统计概念模型评估了湖盆尺度的风蚀风险，并从植物生理生态和环境学的角度探讨了典型湖盆盐/沙尘暴的灾害效应。取得的重要结果是：利用气溶胶遥感产品进一步明确了中亚地区气溶胶高值中心—咸海及其周边地区，掌握了重要盐/沙尘源地——咸海地区盐/沙尘活动明显增强趋势，与干涸湖床面积的扩张紧密相关，根据Markov-CA模型的模拟2025年咸海东南部水域将完全干涸。柴窝堡湖干涸湖底春季粉尘潜在扩散范围和密度最大，覆盖我国大部分地区，最远可达朝鲜半岛部分地区；潜在扩散有两个主要通道，100m以下主要向西南方向扩散，而100m以上主要向东南方向扩散。风蚀风险评估模型及制图显示，咸海东部风蚀风险最为严重，风蚀可能性高达93%，其次是中部（82%）和南部（67%）。研究成果为中亚干旱区盐尘暴灾害的风险评估及预测提供重要科学依据，同时也为加强应对气候变化和人类活动影响下盐尘暴灾害的监测和预警能力，提高生态系统管理水平提供决策参考。