中蒙俄经济走廊生态环境风险评估及对策——以中蒙俄跨境铁路沿线区域为例

China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor is the priority strategy area of the six economic corridors in "The Belt and Road Initiative" of China. The region along the China-Mongolia-Russia cross-border railway is the most important construction area of China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor. In this area, the physical geography is complex and changeful, the ecological environment is fragile and sensitive, and ecological environmental risk is serious, such as desertification, air pollution, water resources decline and so on. This issue has become a major threat for the construction of China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor. However, the research on the ecological environment risk of the region along the China-Mongolia-Russia cross-border railway cannot meet the actual demand. Therefore, this research based on the valuable data and results accumulated by our team carrying out cross-border research for more than ten years, using 3S technology, data mining, econometrics models, system dynamics and other advanced methods, identified the main regional ecological environment risk; revealed the influence factors and formation mechanism of the risk; quantitative evaluated the comprehensive influence and damage degree of the ecological environment risk; dynamic simulated the risk evolution trend; scientifically put forward strategic countermeasures for jointly dealing with cross-border ecological environment risk of China, Mongolia and Russia. The research results will further improve the theory and methods of cross-border regional ecological environment risk assessment, provide scientific support and decision-making basis for the implementation of "The Belt and Road" strategy, the construction of China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor, and the protection of ecological security and sustainable development of the region along the China-Mongolia-Russia cross-border railway.

中蒙俄经济走廊是我国“一带一路”战略规划六大经济走廊的优先战略区域，其中，中蒙俄跨境铁路沿线区域是中蒙俄经济走廊建设的重要承载区域。该区自然地理结构复杂、生态环境脆弱敏感，荒漠化、大气污染、水资源减退等生态环境风险严峻，已成为威胁中蒙俄经济走廊建设的重大隐患。而学界对该区域生态环境风险问题研究严重匮乏，难以满足实际需求。因此，本项目拟基于团队十余年跨境研究积累的宝贵数据及成果，开展实地调研，运用3S技术、大数据挖掘、计量经济、系统动力学等先进方法，识别区域主要生态环境风险；揭示生态风险的影响因素和形成机理；量化评估生态环境风险的综合影响及危害程度；动态模拟生态风险演化趋势；科学提出中蒙俄联合应对跨境生态风险的战略对策。研究成果将进一步完善跨境区域生态环境风险评估理论和方法，为落实“一带一路”战略、推动中蒙俄经济走廊建设、保障中蒙俄跨境铁路沿线区域生态安全和可持续发展提供科技支撑和决策依据。

本研究瞄准中蒙俄经济走廊建设的跨境生态环境风险重大问题，以中蒙俄经济走廊建设的核心承载区——中蒙俄跨境铁路沿线区域为案例区，通过与俄蒙专家共同开展实地科学考察15次，参与国际学术交流12次，按照计划任务书顺利开展研究工作，获得了7项重要研究成果：.1）基于中蒙俄跨境铁路沿线区域实地考察调研，收集获取了2000-2015年区域生态环境、经济社会数据，建立了中蒙俄跨境铁路沿线区域生态环境数据库；.2）刻画了近15年中蒙俄跨境铁路沿线区域的生态环境特征演变过程及演变特征；.3）构建中蒙俄跨境铁路沿线生态环境演变的经济—社会—生态影响综合评价指标体系及综合影响定量评估模型，从经济因子、社会因子、生态因子三个方面，揭示区域生态环境演变的影响因素及作用机理；.4）聚焦中蒙俄跨境铁路沿线沙漠化及冻土演变两大主要生态环境风险，评估其危害程度，刻画风险的空间分布格局；.5）构建中蒙俄跨境铁路沿线区域的生态环境风险综合评价指标体系，从敏感度、暴露度、适应度三个层次对区域生态环境风险进行定量评估，并进行生态风险防控区划；.6）搭建中蒙俄经济走廊生态风险防控协同创新信息平台，实现了实时信息发布、知识传播服务、互动交流讨论等功能；.7）提出了中蒙俄三国联合应对跨境区域生态环境风险的防控对策。. 研究相关成果发表了相关学术论文20篇，包括SCI论文7篇，会议论文9篇，国内核心期刊论文4篇。中办、国办采用战略咨询报告1份。申请获得软件著作权3项。争取获批自然科学基金国际合作交流项目1项。. 本研究通过对中蒙俄跨境铁路沿线区域的生态环境风险类型、影响因素、形成机理、危害程度、防控区划及应对对策开展深入研究，研究结论为促进中蒙俄跨国战略合作，联合应对跨境区域生态风险，保障中蒙俄经济走廊生态安全和经济社会可持续发展提供科学决策依据。