黄海鳀鱼种群长期变化及其驱动机制

Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) is considered as a key species in trophic dynamics of the Yellow Sea ecosystem and its population dynamics face double pressure from human activities and climate change. However, the critical shortage of continuous data in anchovy resource ecology and the almost totally overlapping in time between the available continuous data and anthropogenic large-scale resources exploitation, have significantly increased the difficulty of comprehensive study on anchovy population dynamics and its driving mechanism. Well-preserved fish scales and simultaneously measured inhabit proxies in sediment are regarded as a workable solution to overcome the above-mentioned difficulty. According to the correlation analysis between anchovy population and simultaneously measured inhabit proxies during the last 150-year in our earlier work, we have hypothesized that the bottom-up effect of ecosystem under climate change stress might be the process and mechanism of anchovy population response to climate change. In this study, we aim to reconstruct the the long-term (2000 years) dynamics of anchovy population in the South Yellow Sea with high scale abundance. Combined with the simultaneous determination of environmental proxies in anchovy habitat, we will observe the secular variation in anchovy population and its habitats in longer time scale, eliminate the influences of human activities and natural exception events, and quantitatively test the hypothesis about the bottom-up effect of ecosystem on anchovy population associated with climate change above mentioned. Then by comparing the evolution characteristics of anchovy population and its habitat environment in different periods, we will preliminarily explore the driving mechanism of anchovy population long-term dynamics from the perspectives of both human activities and climate change.

鳀鱼是黄海生态系统营养动力学的关键种，其种群动态面临着人类活动和气候变化的双力驱动。资源生态学连续调查资料的严重短缺，且在时间尺度上与资源规模化开发几乎完全重合，严重制约了黄海鳀鱼种群动态及其驱动机制的研究。对沉积剖面上鱼鳞信息和栖息环境替代指标的同步测定，是解决上述瓶颈问题的重要途径。在前期研究中，我们通过比较沉积剖面上近150年鳀鱼及其栖息环境替代指标，推测气候变化胁迫下生态系统对鳀鱼种群的上行控制作用，是鳀鱼种群对气候变化的响应机制。本研究拟在南黄海的高鱼鳞信息沉积区，反演近2000年黄海鳀鱼种群动态；结合同步测定的栖息环境替代指标，比较和分析史上不同时期鳀鱼种群及其栖息环境长期变化规律，剥离人类活动和自然环境异常事件的影响，定量验证气候变化胁迫下生态系统对鳀鱼种群上行控制这一推测，并初步探讨人类活动和气候变化对鳀鱼种群长期动态的驱动机制。

鳀鱼是黄海生态系统营养动力学的关键种，其种群动态面临着人类活动和气候变化的双力驱动。资源生态学连续调查资料的严重短缺，且在时间尺度上与资源规模化开发几乎完全重合，严重制约了黄海鳀鱼种群动态及其驱动机制的研究。对沉积剖面上鱼鳞信息和栖息环境替代指标的同步测定，是解决上述瓶颈问题的重要途径。在前期研究中，我们通过比较沉积剖面上近150年鳀鱼及其栖息环境替代指标，推测气候变化胁迫下生态系统对鳀鱼种群的上行控制作用，是鳀鱼种群对气候变化的响应机制。本研究拟在南黄海的高鱼鳞信息沉积区，反演近2000年黄海鳀鱼种群动态；结合同步测定的栖息环境替代指标，比较和分析史上不同时期鳀鱼种群及其栖息环境长期变化规律，剥离人类活动和自然环境异常事件的影响，定量验证气候变化胁迫下生态系统对鳀鱼种群上行控制这一推测，并初步探讨人类活动和气候变化对鳀鱼种群长期动态的驱动机制。