气候变化对农业种植结构的影响

A fundamental component of the structural adjustment of agricultural sector is the systematic adjustment of cropping patterns of different crops and further optimization of spatial distribution of agricultural production. Because crops differ in terms of their demand and sensitivity with regard to environmental and resource factors, climate change and its consequent reallocation of environmental and resource endowments will induce changes in the comparative advantage of agricultural production. As a country under high-level sensitivity and vulnerability to global climate change, China is faced with significant changes in climatic conditions, including both mean-value and extreme-value changes, which will lead to profound effects on cropping patterns. Based on historical daily climatological data from meteorological stations, this research will elaborate the fundamental facts, key features, and spatial heterogeneity of climate change in China, and construct a linked dataset between climatology and agriculture by merging in county-level, village-level, and household-level agricultural data. Furthermore, utilizing modern econometric methods, this research will identify the effects of long-run climate change on cropping patterns both at macro and micro scopes, purging off confounding factors including prices and policies. This research will also conduct welfare analyses. Analyzing the relationship between climate change and cropping patterns with scientific methods will shed light on the dynamic optimization of China’s agricultural production landscape. Building a connection between climatological and agricultural systems through a scientific approach will strongly support the construction of a modern climatological system serving the agricultural sector.

统筹调整各种作物的种植结构、进一步优化农业生产区域布局是农业结构调整的重要内容。由于不同作物对环境资源要素的需求与敏感度不同，气候变化所带来的环境资源禀赋变化将引导区域间农业生产的比较优势变迁。我国作为全球气候变化的敏感区和影响显著区，气象条件在“均值”和“极值”两方面所呈现出的显著变化将对我国种植结构变化产生深远的影响。本研究将基于气象站层面的日度气象历史数据厘清我国气候变化的基本事实、特征和区域差异，并结合县区与村户层面的农业数据构造“气象-农业”数据关联。在此基础上，本研究将利用现代计量方法，在剥离价格、政策等因素的基础上在宏观和微观尺度上识别出长期气候变化对种植结构的影响，并开展福利分析。通过科学的方法研究气候变化与我国农业种植结构变化之间的关系将有助于实现我国农业生产布局的动态优化。通过科学的手段建立气象与农业系统的数据关联也将对我国“建设现代气象为农服务体系”形成有力支撑。

统筹调整各种作物的种植结构、进一步优化农业生产区域布局是农业结构调整的重要内容。由于不同作物对环境资源要素的需求与敏感度不同，气候变化所带来的环境资源禀赋变化将引导区域间农业生产的比较优势变迁。我国作为全球气候变化的敏感区和影响显著区，气象条件所呈现出的显著变化将对我国种植结构变化产生深远的影响。本研究基于气象站层面的日度气象历史数据厘清我国气候变化的基本事实、特征和区域差异，并结合县区、村户、农业观测点层面的农业数据构造出多套具有全国代表性的“气象-农业”数据关联。在此基础上，本研究利用现代计量方法，围绕长期气候变化对农业尤其是种植结构问题的影响，在剥离价格、政策等因素的基础上在宏观和微观尺度上实现实证识别，并开展必要的未来情景预测及福利分析。本研究发现，长期气候变化显著影响我国的农业结构，受气候变化引导的结构调整构成一种重要的农业适应途径，但在当前的技术、制度条件下其所展现的适应能力仍相对有限。研究同时结合具体作物的种植、收获、生长季调整等行为，在多个维度上开展了细致的机制分析。此外，研究在种植结构影响问题上的跨国比较分析揭示了不同农业发展程度国家在气候变化适应性问题上的差异。本研究的主要发现有助于实现我国农业生产布局的动态优化。通过科学的手段建立气象与农业系统的数据关联也将对我国“建设现代气象为农服务体系”形成有力支撑。