基于Multi-Agent协商的高堆石坝施工度汛风险演化机理及其控制

The risk reassignment during flood period is a basic problem of the safety, quality and management of the high rock-fill dam construction. It includes the risk factor identification ，the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics, uncertainty estimation of the flood, the risk features coupling and their parametric simulation, the main Multi-Agent utility of the risk allocation, evolution mechanism of the risk negotiation and the optimization of the risk allocation during construction period. Based on Multi-Agent structural analysis and applied engineering hydraulics and hydrology, system simulation technology, evolutionary game and multiple attribute decision-making method, it is established the parameterized dynamic simulation model of construction flood risk for high rock-fill dam. According to the risk preference of heterogeneous groups in temporal and spatial transition, it analyzes risk negotiated interaction between the groups during flood period and a sequential decision- making method for high rock-fill dam construction, and reveals transformation regularity between the construction resources and construction flood risk reassignment. The resources allocation model and the evaluation method of high rock-fill dam construction of risk process control is established. It provides a theoretical basis of safety and economy construction for high rock-fill dam.

高堆石坝施工度汛风险的实时控制关系工程建设的安全与质量，是工程建设与管理的基础问题。针对高堆石坝在施工度汛风险实时控制中风险要素及时空分布特征、施工洪水不确定性估计、风险要素耦合及其参数化仿真、风险调配主体Multi-Agent效用、风险协商演化规律、度汛风险调配与决策等关键科学问题，综合运用工程水力学、水文学、仿真技术、演化博弈和多属性决策等理论与方法，依据异质群体风险偏好的时空转变特性，解析和揭示异质群体之间施工度汛风险协商互动路径、施工资源与施工度汛风险分配及其转化的内在规律，建立施工度汛风险动态分配与施工进度、水流控制、风险偏好等要素自动匹配的序贯决策及其高堆石坝施工度汛风险的参数化动态仿真模型，提出高堆石坝施工度汛风险实时控制驱动的资源调配模型与系统评价方法，为高堆石坝安全与经济建设提供理论基础。

本项目围绕高堆石坝施工度汛过程中风险演化及控制问题，基于实测洪水资料，结合Copula函数和最大熵原理，表征坝前最高水位概率分布。系统分析护坡石料失稳的关键影响因子，引入拉丁超立方抽样法构建护坡石料稳定风险模型，提出护坡石料失稳风险率计算方法。分析高堆石坝坝体临时挡水度汛的洪水及其高程时空分布特征，构建施工度汛挡水风险的数学模型，计算度汛挡水时变风险。在高堆石坝坝面临时过水度汛条件下，设计了一套水槽物理模型试验系统，试验分析护坡石料的失稳及冲刷形态演变规律，给出了护面最大冲坑的冲刷深度表达式。耦合水文、水力、工程费用与施工进度等随机影响因素，提出多维联合度汛风险评估方法。同时，依据水文特征与坝体填筑规律，建立施工度汛风险参数化时变仿真模型。结合风险偏好和利益导向的群体（Multi-Agent）协商特征，测度决策者的方案选择时变效益，给出度汛决策行为的动态演化过程及其决策路径和坝体填筑高程的变化特征。考虑度汛协商过程的动态性和交互性，结合群组风险决策理论，建立施工方案动态交互协商决策模型，提出施工度汛优选方法。