体系贡献率导向的武器装备系统鲁棒组合选择方法

The project is proposed under the background of joint operation systems (JOS), aiming at selecting robust weapon-equipment-system-portfolio (WESP) solutions from several candidates to meet future multi-scenario requirements based on the idea of robust decision making, with the contribution of WESP to the future JOS as the evaluation standard. Specifically, from the three views of system, capability and operation, co-citation network is used to model the internal integration mechanism of weapon and equipment system combination, and the integration index is proposed to evaluate the integration effect, which is used as the model input for the evaluation model of systems contribution ratio (SCR) and a constraint input for the robust portfolio selection process. Next, based on the concept of capability and effectiveness, the combination of dynamic and static gains is designed. Contribution Rate Model of Equipment System Composition System is proposed the combination of dynamic and static gains indexes model. In view of uncertain target requirement, a belief rule base with attribute reliability (BRB-r) and activation rules are proposed to evaluate system contribution rate. Then, the project focuses on researching the scenarios identification method, the scenarios generating approach based on the orthogonal experimental design theory, and obtain multi-scenario model to calculate the contribution rate of WESP. The WESP robust portfolio selection model is going to be constructed based on three robustness criteria (total robustness, robust deviation, and robust adjustability), according to which the robust WESP solutions meeting the future diversified operation requirements can be acquired. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed method is verified and modified, step by step, through test data set, test data and system of systems application.

本项目拟在联合作战体系背景下，以武器装备系统组合（WESP）对体系贡献率为评价标准，基于鲁棒决策思想，从候选武器装备系统方案中选择满足未来多场景需求的鲁棒组合方案。首先，从系统、能力、作战三个层次，采用共引网络对WESP内部集成机制建模，并提出集成度评价集成效果，作为体系贡献率评估的模型输入以及鲁棒组合选择的约束输入；其次，立足于能力与效能的概念，设计动静态增益相结合的WESP体系贡献率模型，针对不确定目标需求情形，提出带属性可靠性的置信规则库（BRB-r）和激活规则进行体系贡献率评估；再次，研究场景识别、基于正交试验的场景生成，获得多场景模型并计算WESP贡献率，基于三种鲁棒性指标（完全鲁棒性、鲁棒性偏差和鲁棒可调整性），构建多场景下武器装备系统鲁棒组合选择模型，获得满足多样化作战需求且鲁棒的WESP方案。最后，通过测试数据集、试验数据以及体系应用等逐步验证所提方法可行性，对其修改完善。

本项目深入分析体系贡献率导向的武器装备系统组合选择问题，将武器装备系统组合与体系贡献率评估纳入装备发展规划研究框架，根据不同的作战场景模拟，评估出各类装备系统组合方案的贡献率，进而提高武器装备系统组合方案的适应性、灵活性和鲁棒性，指导决策者开展武器装备系统组合方案的优选。项目聚焦于武器装备系统组合的集成机制、贡献率评估和多场景下武器装备系统组合选择等问题，通过综合运用体系结构框架、异质网络、鲁棒组合建模、不确定性理论、智能优化算法等技术，重点开展武器装备系统组合的多层次集成机制、武器装备系统组合体系贡献率评价、多场景下武器装备系统鲁棒组合选择等内容的研究，解决了基于共引网络的装备组合方案生成、基于异质网络的武器装备体系建模方法、基于生成对抗网络的装备数据脱敏、面向能力的装备体系贡献分析、不确定场景下的装备武器组合选择、面向大规模武器装备系统鲁棒组合选择等关键科学问题，研究并突破了相应的基础理论和关键技术，结合多种军事应用研究，取得一系列的理论和应用研究成果。本项目资助研究共发表论文21篇，其中SCI检索9篇（JCR一区4篇），EI检索11篇，申请专利5项，授权软件著作权3项；共培养博士研究生3名，硕士研究生15名；组织学术会议3次，参加国际学术会议5次，国内学术会议5次。项目研究成果成功服务于待投产的武器系统组合选择、多场景下装备鲁棒规划、武器装备系统的组合选择、海上联合作战武器系统组合选择等方面的实践工作，可以持续为我国加快构建适应履行使命要求的装备体系，提高装备体系发展建设管理水平提供理论方法指导和技术支持。