启动可靠性验证试验拓展模型及相关问题研究

According to the importance of start-up reliability of key equipments, and the insufficiency of theoretical gap on complexity of traditional start-up demonstration tests in complex cases, further study is required. First, advanced models of start-up demonstration tests will be constructed based on the cause of various complex situations, theory of traditional models of start-up demonstration tests, and theory of Consecutive-k system reliability. Second, probability indexes will be constructed in view of the advanced models, and the relevant indicators will be solved by using the finite Markov chain embedding approach and Monte Carlo simulation. Then, by taking the minimization of the times or costs of tests as objective function, and using constraints of risk segmentation and multidimensional OC surface, the optimization model will be given and the relevant indicators will be solved. Finally, according to the characters of the data obtained from start-up demonstration tests, we will propose Bayesian Estimation of start-up reliability based on Markov Chain Monte Carol (MCMC) methods. .This research can be directly applied to all kinds of complicated start-up demonstration tests design and the constitution of relative standards. Moreover, this research can further expand the reliability test theory, and accelerate the development of system reliability, statistical runs, finite Markov chain embedding approach, and so on.

针对关键设备启动可靠性问题的重要性，以及传统启动可靠性验证试验理论对启动试验的复杂性考虑不足的现实，本课题将在深入调研的基础上，首先，以启动试验复杂性的成因为切入点，依据启动可靠性验证试验传统模型理论和Consecutive-k系统可靠性理论，构建启动可靠性验证试验拓展模型；其次，针对拓展模型构建概率指标体系，并应用有限马尔可夫链嵌入法和蒙特卡罗模拟法进行指标求解研究；再次，以试验次数或成本最小化为目标函数，通过风险细分和多维OC曲面构建约束条件，进而建立参数优化模型，并进行模型求解研究；最后，针对启动可靠性验证试验数据的特点，进行基于MCMC的启动可靠性贝叶斯估计方法研究。.本课题研究成果可直接应用于各种复杂情况下的最佳启动可靠性验证试验方案设计，以及相关标准的制订。此外，本课题研究还将进一步丰富可靠性试验理论，推动系统可靠性、统计游程、有限马尔可夫链嵌入法等相关理论和研究方法的发展。

重要机电设备（如应急柴油发电机组、航天探测器等）在投入使用过程中，启动失败往往会造成重大的经济损失，有些武器装备（如装甲车辆、两栖作战坦克等）启动失败甚至会贻误战机，造成重大的政治影响，因此这些重要设备的启动可靠性显得尤为重要。本课题以重要机电设备的启动可靠性为研究对象，展开了深入研究，取得了如下研究成果：分别构建了具有复合判定准则的启动可靠性验证试验模型，试验设备并行的启动可靠性验证试验模型，试验结果为三态的启动可靠性验证试验模型，试验结果为多态的启动可靠性验证试验模型，以设备等级划分为目标的启动可靠性验证试验模型，设备启动功能维修策略和备件库存联合优化等，并应用有限马尔可夫链嵌入法给出了相关指标的矩阵形式解析表达式，构建了试验方案参数优化模型和求解流程，对比分析表明新模型在试验效率和成本，在设备分级管理、维修策略和备件库存策略制定等方面具有明显优势。研究成果一方面丰富了可靠性试验理论，另一方面为节省试验成本，筛选高启动可靠性产品提供理论依据。